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When half the truth is better than the truth: A Theory of aggregate information cascades

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Author Info
Antonio Guarino (University College London)
Steffen Huck (University College London)
Heike Harmgart (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development(EBRD))

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Abstract

We introduce a new model of aggregate information cascades where only one of two possible actions is observable to others. When called upon, agents (who decide in some random order that they do not know) are only informed about the total number of others who have chosen the observable action before them. This informational structure arises nat- urally in many applications. Our most important result is that only one type of cascade arises in equilibrium, the aggregate cascade on the observable action. A cascade on the unobservable action never arises. Our results may have important policy consequences. Central agencies, for example in the health sector, may optimally decide to withhold in- formation from the public.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London in its series WEF Working Papers with number 0046.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wef:wpaper:0046

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. David Hirshleifer & Siew Hong Teoh, 2003. "Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis," European Financial Management, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 25-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dorothea Kübler & Georg Weizsäcker, 2005. "Are Longer Cascades More Stable?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 330-339, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Huck, Steffen & Oechssler, Jorg, 2000. "Informational cascades in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 661-671, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Gale, Douglas, 1996. "What have we learned from social learning?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 617-628, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Amir Sufi, 2007. "Information Asymmetry and Financing Arrangements: Evidence from Syndicated Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 629-668, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Banerjee, Abhijit & Fudenberg, Drew, 2004. "Word-of-mouth learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 1-22, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dorothea K¸bler & Georg Weizs”cker, 2004. "Limited Depth of Reasoning and Failure of Cascade Formation in the Laboratory," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 425-441, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Antonio Guarino & Philippe Jehie, 2009. "Social Learning with Coarse Inference," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000292, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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