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Informational cascades in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons?

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Author Info
Steffen Huck (Humboldt University, Berlin)
Joerg Oechssler (Humboldt University, Berlin)

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Abstract

Recently, the theory of informational cascades has been tested in an experiment by Anderson and Holt (1997) who report that their data support the theory amazingly well. In this note we report on an experiment designed to find out whether observed cascades are indeed due to rational Bayesian updating. However, we find little support for rational updating. The simple heuristic "follow your own signal" does much better in explaining our data than Bayesian rationality.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Experimental with number 9901001.

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Length: 9 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jan 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpex:9901001

Note: pages: 9
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: herding information cascades experiments.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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  1. Shunichiro Sasaki, 2005. "Signal Qualities, Order of Decisions, and Informational Cascades: Experimental Evidence," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(34), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  2. Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," WEF Working Papers 0047, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  3. C. Oberhammer & A. Stiehler, . "Does Cascade Behavior in Information Cascades Reflect Bayesian Updating?," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-32, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  4. Roe, Brian & Teisl, Mario, 2004. "Consumption Externalities, Information Policies, And Multiple Equilibria: Evidence For Genetically Engineered Food Markets," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20243, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  5. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2005. "Herd Behavior in a Laboratory Financial Market," Experimental 0502002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jacob K. Goeree & Thomas R. Palfrey & Brian W. Rogers & Richard D. McKelvey, 2006. "Self-Correcting Information Cascades," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000211, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Weizsäcker, Georg, 2008. "Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations," IZA Discussion Papers 3616, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Jonathan E. Alevy & Michael S. Haigh & John List, 2006. "Information Cascades: Evidence from An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," NBER Working Papers 12767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2003. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 18-03, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Tim Grebe & Julia Schmid & Andreas Stiehler, 2006. "Do individuals recognize cascade behavior of others? An Experimental Study," Discussion Papers 180, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Juan Pablo Herrera & Francisco Lozano Gerena, 2005. "Modelo de manadas y aprendizaje social," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 7(13), pages 133-157, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  12. Antonio Guarino & Marco Cipriani, 2008. "Herd Behavior in Financial Markets: An Experiment with Financial Market Professionals," IMF Working Papers 08/141, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Antonio Guarino & Steffen Huck & Heike Harmgart, 2008. "When half the truth is better than the truth: A Theory of aggregate information cascades," WEF Working Papers 0046, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London. [Downloadable!]
  14. Morone, Andrea & Fiore, Annamaria & Sandri, Serena, 2008. "On The Absorbability Of Herd Behaviour And Informational Cascades: An Experimental Analysis," MPRA Paper 6884, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Kraemer, Carlo & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2000. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information and Random Ordering: Experimental Evidence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-35, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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