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Modeling services liberalization : the case of Kenya

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  • Balistreri, Edward J.
  • Rutherford, Thomas F.
  • Tarr, David G.

Abstract

This paper employs a 55 sector small open economy computable general equilibrium model of the Kenyan economy to assess the impact of the liberalization of regulatory barriers against foreign and domestic business service providers in Kenya. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. It estimates the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialists in Kenya. The authors estimate that Kenya will gain about 11 percent of the value of Kenyan consumption in the medium run (or about 10 percent of gross domestic product) from a full reform package that also includes uniform tariffs. The estimated gains increase to 77 percent of consumption in the long-run steady-state model, where the impact on the accumulation of capital from an improvement in the productivity of capital is taken into account. Decomposition exercises reveal that the largest gains to Kenya will derive from liberalization of costly regulatory barriers that are non-discriminatory in their impacts between Kenyan and multinational service providers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4544.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4544

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Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Economic Theory&Research; Banks&Banking Reform; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets;

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References

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  1. Jensen, Jesper & Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2004. "The impact of liberalizing barriers to foreign direct investment in services - the case of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3391, The World Bank.
  2. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
  3. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
  4. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
  5. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 508, Econometric Society.
  6. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2008. "Modeling services liberalization : the case of Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4544, The World Bank.
  7. Terje Hansen & Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1972. "On the Definition and Computation of a Capital Stock Invariant Under Optimization," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 313R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Konan, Denise Eby & Maskus, Keith E., 2006. "Quantifying the impact of services liberalization in a developing country," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 142-162, October.
  9. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Fernandes, Ana M., 2007. "Structure and performance of the services sector in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4357, The World Bank.
  11. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
  12. Fernandes, Ana M. & Paunov, Caroline, 2008. "Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity growth: evidence for Chile," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4730, The World Bank.
  13. Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2003. "Regional Trading Arrangements for Chile: do the Results Differ with a Dynamic Model?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 94-95, pages 261-281.
  14. Arnold, Jens M. & Javorcik, Beata S. & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2011. "Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?: Evidence from the Czech Republic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 136-146, September.
  15. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Tarr, David G, 1997. "Quantifying the Uruguay Round," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1405-30, September.
  16. James Markusen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2005. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 758-777, August.
  17. Harrison, Glenn W & Rutherford, Thomas F & Tarr, David G, 1993. "Trade Reform in the Partially Liberalized Economy of Turkey," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(2), pages 191-217, May.
  18. Tybout, James R. & Westbrook, M. Daniel, 1995. "Trade liberalization and the dimensions of efficiency change in Mexican manufacturing industries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 53-78, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elisabeth M. Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE Modeling of Market Access in Services," Economics working papers 2012-08, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  2. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2010. "Services Trade and Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(3), pages 642-92, September.
  3. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  4. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2008. "Modeling services liberalization : the case of Kenya," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4544, The World Bank.
  5. Jensen, Jesper & Tarr, David G., 2012. "Deep trade policy options for Armenia: The importance of trade facilitation, services and standards liberalization," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(1), pages 1-54.
  6. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  7. World Bank, 2012. "Kazakhstan : Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12299, The World Bank.
  8. Gordan Stojić, 2012. "Using Fuzzy Logic for Evaluating the Level of Countries’ (Regions’) Economic Development," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(3), pages 293-310, June.
  9. World Bank, 2010. "Reform and Regional Integration of Professional Services in East Africa : Time for Action," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2957, The World Bank.
  10. Chisari, Omar O. & Maquieyra, Javier & Romero, Carlos A., 2009. "Liberalization of trade in services: A CGE analysis for Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay," MPRA Paper 15336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:911-932 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bianka Dettmer, 2012. "Business services outsourcing and economic growth: Evidence from a dynamic panel data approach," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-049, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  13. World Bank, 2012. "Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2722, The World Bank.

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