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The impact of Kazakhstan accession to the World Trade Organization : a quantitative assessment

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  • Jensen, Jesper
  • Tarr, David

Abstract

In this paper the authors use a computable general equilibrium model of the Kazakhstan economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which encompasses (1) improved market access; (2) Kazakhstan tariff reduction; (3) reduction of barriers against entry by multinational service providers; and (4) reform of local content and value-added tax policies confronting multinational firms in the oil sector. They assume that foreign direct investment in business services is necessary for multinationals to compete well with Kazakstan business services providers, but cross-border service provision is also present. The model incorporates productivity effects in both goods and services markets endogenously, through a Dixit-Stiglitz framework. The authors estimated the ad valorem equivalent of barriers to foreign direct investment based on detailed questionnaires completed by specialized research institutes in Kazakhstan. They estimate that Kazakhstan will gain about 6.7 percent of the value of Kazakhstan consumption in the medium run from WTO accession and up to 17.5 percent in the long run. They estimate that the largest gains to Kazakhstan will derive from liberalization of barriers against multinational service providers, but the other three elements of WTO accession that the authors model all contribute positively to the estimated gains. Piecemeal sensitivity analysis shows that qualitatively the results are robust, but there are four parameters in the model that significantly affect the estimated magnitude of the gains from WTO accession.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4142.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4142

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Transport Economics Policy&Planning; Free Trade; ICT Policy and Strategies; Investment and Investment Climate;

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  1. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
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  3. James R. Markusen & Thomas F. Rutherford & David Tarr, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investments in Services and the Domestic Market for Expertise," NBER Working Papers 7700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Paul M. Romer, 1993. "New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 1998. "Trade liberalization and endogenous growth in a small open economy : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1970, The World Bank.
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  13. Philippa Dee & Kevin Hanslow & Tiem Phamduc, 2003. "Measuring the Cost of Barriers to Trade in Services," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  2. Sviltana Taran, 2008. "ENEPO: EU Eastern Neighbourhood - Economic Potential and Future Development," CASE Network Studies and Analyses, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research 0371, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

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