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Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia

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  • Maryla Maliszewska
  • Irina Orlova
  • Svitlana Taran
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    Abstract

    Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia Abstract: The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of the removal of NTBs in trade between the EU and its selected CIS partners: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan (CIS5). The report includes a discussion of methodologies of measurement of non-tariff barriers and the impact of their removal, including a review of previous studies focusing on CEE and CIS regions. Further, we employ a computable general equilibrium model encompassing the following three pillars of trade facilitation: legislative and regulatory approximation, reform of customs rules and procedures and liberalization of the access of foreign providers of services. We conclude that a reduction of NTBs and improved access to the EU market would bring significant benefits to the CIS5 countries in terms of welfare gains, GDP growth, increases in real wages and expansion of international trade. The possible welfare implications of deep integration with the EU range from 5.8% of GDP in Ukraine to sizeable expected gains in Armenia (3.1%), Russia (2.8%), Azerbaijan (1.8%) and Georgia (1.7%).

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    File URL: http://www.case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/27252442_CNR_88%283%29.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research in its series CASE Network Reports with number 0088.

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    Length: 96 Pages
    Date of creation: 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:sec:cnrepo:0088

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    Related research

    Keywords: Institutional harmonization; European integration; European Neighborhood Policy; ENP; non-tariff barriers; NTBs; Computable General Equilibrium; CGE model;

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    References

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    1. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    2. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. John C. Beghin & Jean-Christophe Bureau, 2001. "Quantification of Sanitary, Phytosanitary, and Technical Barriers to Trade for Trade Policy Analysis," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 01-wp291, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    4. Lejour, Arjan & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "Opening services markets within Europe: Modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1022-1039, September.
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    7. Norbert Wilson, 2007. "Examining the Trade Effect of Certain Customs and Administrative Procedures," OECD Trade Policy Papers 42, OECD Publishing.
    8. Stephen S. Golub, 2003. "Measures Of Restrictions on Inward Foreign Direct Investment for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 357, OECD Publishing.
    9. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3473, The World Bank.
    10. Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
    11. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2006. "Regional impacts of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4015, The World Bank.
    12. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
    13. Jesper Jensen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2007. "The Impact of Liberalizing Barriers to Foreign Direct Investment in Services: The Case of Russian Accession to the World Trade Organization," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 482-506, 08.
    14. Jensen, Jesper & Tarr, David, 2007. "The impact of Kazakhstan accession to the World Trade Organization : a quantitative assessment," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4142, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:
    1. World Bank, 2012. "Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs Union for Kazakhstan," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2722, The World Bank.
    2. World Bank, 2012. "Kazakhstan : Assessment of Costs and Benefits of the Customs," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12299, The World Bank.

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