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Opening services markets within Europe; modelling foreign establishments in a CGE framework

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  • Arjan Lejour

    ()

  • Hugo Rojas-Romagosa

    ()

  • Verweij. G.

Abstract

In services, the activities of foreign affiliates often exceed the value of cross-border trade. A complete analysis of services liberalisation therefore requires the modelling of FDI. This paper presents the treatment of FDI in our CGE model WorldScan based on the ideas of Petri (1997) and Markusen (2002). They assume that firms establishing affiliates abroad also transfer firm-specific knowledge. Consequently, capital and products differ from existing capital and products in the host country. As an illustration, we apply this model to assess the proposals of the European Commission to open up services markets. FDI in services could increase by 20% to 35%. However, the overall economic impact is limited. Our assessment suggests that GDP in the EU25 could increase up to 0.4%. These effects could be up to 0.8% higher if foreign capital also increases the overall productivity of the services sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Paper with number 80.

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Date of creation: Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:80

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References

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  1. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour & Raymond Montizaan, 2004. "The free movement of services within the EU," CPB Document 69, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  2. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  3. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2005. "Regulatory heterogeneity as obstacle for international services trade," CPB Discussion Paper 49, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  4. Springer, Katrin, 1998. "The DART general equilibrium model: A technical description," Kiel Working Papers 883, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Wolfgang Keller & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2005. "Multinational Enterprises, International Trade, and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence from the United States," Kiel Working Papers 1249, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  6. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, December.
  7. Nico van Leeuwen & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "Bilateral FDI Stocks by sector," CPB Memorandum 164, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  8. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Productivity Effects of FDI Inflows: A Literature Review," CPB Memorandum 170, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  9. James Markusen & Thomas Rutherford & David Tarr, 2005. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 758-777, August.
  10. Arjan Lejour & Paul Veenendaal & Gerard Verweij & Nico van Leeuwen, 2006. "Worldscan; a model for international economic policy analysis," CPB Document 111, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  11. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," NBER Working Papers 11299, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Brown, Drusilla K & Stern, Robert M, 2001. "Measurement and Modeling of the Economic Effects of Trade and Investment Barriers in Services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 262-86, May.
  13. de Bruijn, Roland & Kox, Henk & Lejour, Arjan, 2008. "Economic benefits of an Integrated European Market for Services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 301-319.
  14. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Yvan Decreux & Jean-Louis Guérin & Sébastien Jean, 2002. "MIRAGE, a Computable General Equilibrium Model for Trade Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2002-17, CEPII research center.
  15. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank.
  16. Henk Kox & Arjan Lejour, 2006. "The Effects of the Services Directive on Intra-eu Trade and fdi," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 747-769.
  17. Arjan Lejour & Henk Kox & Roland de Bruijn, 2006. "The trade-induced effects of the Services Directive and the country of origin principle," CPB Document 108, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  18. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Overview of the Literature," CPB Memorandum 169, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  19. Stephen R. Yeaple & Wolfgang Keller, 2003. "Multinational Enterprises, International Trade, and Productivity Growth," IMF Working Papers 03/248, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Rutherford, Thomas F, 1999. "Applied General Equilibrium Modeling with MPSGE as a GAMS Subsystem: An Overview of the Modeling Framework and Syntax," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 14(1-2), pages 1-46, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ziliang Deng & Rod Falvey & Adam Blake, 2013. "Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Model," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 369-389, December.
  2. Arjan Lejour & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2006. "Foreign Direct Investment in Applied General Equilibrium Models: Overview of the Literature," CPB Memorandum 169, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Christophe Gouel & Houssein Guimbard & David Laborde, 2012. "A Foreign Direct Investment database for global CGE models," Working Papers 2012-08, CEPII research center.
  4. Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2009. "Services Trade and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Deng, Ziliang & Falvey, Rod & Blake, Adam, 2012. "Trading market access for technology? Tax incentives, foreign direct investment and productivity spillovers in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 675-690.
  6. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  7. Paul de Boer & Richard Paap, 2009. "Testing non-nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 63(3), pages 368-384.
  8. Christen, Elisabeth & Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard, 2013. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Market Access in Services," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  9. Ziliang Deng & Adam Blake & Rod Falvey, . "Quantifying Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers: A Computable General Equilibrium Framework for China," Discussion Papers 09/18, University of Nottingham, GEP.
  10. Wei Jin, 2012. "International Knowledge Spillover and Technology Externality: Why Multilateral R&D Coordination Matters for Global Climate Governance," CAMA Working Papers 2012-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Elisabeth Christen & Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman, 2012. "CGE modeling of market access in services," Working Papers 2012-13, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  12. Wei Jin, 2012. "Can China Harness Globalization to Reap Carbon Savings? Modeling International Technology Diffusion in a Multi-region Framework," CAMA Working Papers 2012-52, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  13. Maryla Maliszewska & Irina Orlova & Svitlana Taran, 2009. "Deep Integration with the EU and its Likely Impact on Selected ENP Countries and Russia," CASE Network Reports 0088, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  14. Anwar, Sajid, 2009. "Sector specific foreign investment, labour inflow, economies of scale and welfare," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 626-630, May.
  15. Lakatos, Csilla & Walmsley, Terrie, 2012. "Investment creation and diversion effects of the ASEAN–China free trade agreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 766-779.

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