Poverty, Welfare and Income Distribution Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa

We examine regional and unilateral policies to reduce three kinds of trade costs in Eastern and Southern Africa. Our article is the first CGE-microsimulation model to assess the impacts of the reduction of trade costs on poverty and income of the poorest 40% of the population. We estimate significant reductions in the poverty headcount and increases in income for the poorest 40%. We find that trade facilitation would increase the ‘share’ of income of the poorest 40% of the population, however, services reform decreases the share. We find and explain why our three types of trade costs have very diverse impacts across the countries.