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Poverty effects of Russia's WTO accession : modeling"real"households and endogenous productivity effects

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Author Info
Rutherford, Thomas
Tarr, David
Shepotylo, Oleksandr

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Abstract

The authors use a computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. Their model is innovative in that they incorporate all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as"real"households in the model. This is accomplished because they develop a new algorithm for solving general equilibrium models with a large number of agents. In addition, they include foreign direct investment and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects in their trade and poverty analysis. In the medium term, the authors find that virtually all households gain from Russian WTO accession, with 99.9 percent of the estimated gains falling within a range between 2 and 25 percent increases in household income. They show that their estimates are decisively affected by liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in business services sectors and endogenous productivity effects in business services and goods. The authors use their integrated model to assess the error associated with a"top down"approach to micro-simulation. They find that approximation errors introduced by failing to account for income effects in the conventional sequential approach are very small. However, data reconciliation between the national accounts and the household budget survey is important to the results. Despite the estimated gains for virtually all households in the medium term, many households may lose in the short term because of the costs of transition. So, safety nets are crucial for the poorest members of society during the transition.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3473.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3473

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Labor Policies; Housing&Human Habitats; Economic Theory&Research; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Housing&Human Habitats; International Terrorism&Counterterrorism; Health Economics&Finance;

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  1. Peichl, Andreas, 2008. "The Benefits of Linking CGE and Microsimulation Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3715, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2005. "Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 05-12, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2008. "The Food Crisis and its Impacts on Poverty in Senegal and Mali: Crossed Destinies," Cahiers de recherche 08-20, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke, revised 08 May 2009. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Luc Savard & A. Diagne, 2004. "Impacts De La Libéralisation Commerciale De L’Agriculture Sur La Pauvreté Et La Distribution De Revenus Au Sénégal," Cahiers de recherche 04-11, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  5. Anderson, Kym & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2005. "Global impacts of Doha trade reform scenarios on poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3735, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Bernard Hoekman, 2008. "The General Agreement on Trade in Services: Doomed to Fail? Does it Matter?," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 295-318, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stefan Boeters & Michael Feil, 2009. "Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation–AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 305-335, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sebastian Rausch & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2008. "Computation of Equilibria in OLGModels with Many Heterogeneous Households," Economics working paper series 08/90, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Melanie Arntz & Stefan Boeters & Nicole Gürtzgen & Stefanie Schubert, 2006. "Analysing Welfare Reform in a Microsimulation-AGE Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 109, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Luc Savard & Stéphane Mussard, 2005. "Micro-simulation and Multi-decomposition: A Case Study: Philippines," Cahiers de recherche 05-02, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  11. Arntz, Melanie & Boeters, Stefan & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Schubert, Stefanie, 2006. "Analysing welfare reform in a microsimulation-AGE model : the value of disaggregation," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-76, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David & Shepotylo, Oleksandr, 2005. "The impact on Russia of WTO accession and the Doha agenda : the importance of liberalization of barriers against foreign direct investment in services for growth and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3725, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Joseph Francois & Ian Wooton, 2008. "Market Structure and Market Access," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Luc Savard & Stéphane Mussard, 2005. "Horizontal and Vertical Redistribution and Micro-simulation," Cahiers de recherche 05-03, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
  15. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models: Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," SOEPpapers 182, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). [Downloadable!]
  16. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2005. "A Poverty and Inequality Impact Assessment of Liberalization of Water Utility in Senegal: A Macro-Micro Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 05-13, Departement d'Economique de la Faculte d'administration à l'Universite de Sherbrooke. [Downloadable!]
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