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Legislative TermLimits and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Yasushi Asako

    (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University)

  • Tetsuya MatsubayashiAuthor-Name-First: TetsuyaAuthor-Name-Last: MatsubayashiAuthor-Workplace-Name: Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
  • Michiko Ueda

    (Department of Political Science, Syracuse University)

Abstract

What are the fiscal consequences of legislative term limits? To answer this question, we first develop a legislative bargaining model that describes negotiations over the allocation of distributive projects among legislators with different levels of seniority. Building on several predictions from the model, we develop two hypotheses for empirical testing. First, the adoption of term limits that results in a larger reduction in the variance of seniority within a legislature increases the amount of government spending. Second, legislatures that adopt stricter term limits increase the amount of government spending, while legislatures that adopt moderate term limits show no change in the amount. We provide evidence for these hypotheses using panel data for 49 US state legislatures between 1980 and 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Yasushi Asako & Tetsuya MatsubayashiAuthor-Name-First: TetsuyaAuthor-Name-Last: MatsubayashiAuthor-Workplace-Name: Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University & Michiko Ueda, 2016. "Legislative TermLimits and Government Spending: Theory and Evidence from the United States," Working Papers 1603, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:wap:wpaper:1603
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Erler, 2007. "Legislative term limits and state spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 133(3), pages 479-494, December.
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    5. Dick, Andrew R. & Lott, John Jr., 1993. "Reconciling voters' behavior with legislative term limits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Yogesh Uppal & Amihai Glazer, 2015. "Legislative Turnover, Fiscal Policy, And Economic Growth: Evidence From U.S. State Legislatures," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(1), pages 91-107, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Legislature; seniority; term limits; government spending; elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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