Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?
AbstractUsing several rounds of the Eurobarometer [EB] survey, we examine the relationship between lifetime fertility intentions and the “Great Recession” in Europe. We suppose that the increase in unemployment rates observed between 2006 and 2011, the years in which the two EB surveys were conducted, are key driving forces behind the decline of fertility intentions observed in some EU countries, like Greece, over the 5-year period. Our findings reveal that the increasing uncertainty attached to the reported fertility intentions substantially contributes to the declining pattern observed over the five years and that people who negatively assess the country economic situation are more likely to plan smaller family sizes than those who have a more optimistic view of the country past short-term economic trend. Eventually, the aggregate negative changes occurred in fertility intentions between 2006 and 2011 are positively correlated with the increase of youth unemployment rates. We might expect a similar declining trend in lifetime fertility intentions also in other countries – such as Spain, Italy, Ireland and Portugal – in the years to come if the economic crisis starts to be perceived as heavily as in Greece in such countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna in its series Working Papers with number 1209.
Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/
Lifetime fertility intentions; Great Recession; multilevel analysis; Europe; unemployment rates; PIIGS;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hashimoto, Yuki & Kondo, Ayako, 2012.
"Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-22.
- Yuki Hashimoto & Ayako Kondo, 2010. "Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth," ISER Discussion Paper 0789, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2012.
"Growth and Welfare Effects of Health Care in Knowledge Based Economies,"
1206, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
- Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2012. "Growth and welfare e ffects of health care in knowledge based economies," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 120, Courant Research Centre PEG.
- Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2013. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Health Care in Knowledge Based Economies," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79970, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2012. "Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge based economies," ECON WPS - Vienna University of Technology Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 03/2012, Vienna University of Technology, Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Research Group Economics (ECON).
- Samuel Bentolila & Pierre Cahuc & Juan J. Dolado & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2012. "Two‐Tier Labour Markets in the Great Recession: France Versus Spain-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(562), pages F155-F187, 08.
- Alicia Adsera, 2005. "Vanishing Children: From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 189-193, May.
- Øystein Kravdal, 2002. "The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(10), pages 263-294, April.
- Bentolila, Samuel & Cahuc, Pierre & Dolado, Juan J. & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2010.
"Two-Tier Labor Markets in the Great Recession: France vs. Spain,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8152, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Samuel Bentolila & Pierre Cahuc & Juan Jose Dolado & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2010. "Two-Tier Labor Markets in the Great Recession: France vs. Spain," CESifo Working Paper Series 3269, CESifo Group Munich.
- Bentolila, Samuel & Cahuc, Pierre & Dolado, Juan José & Le Barbanchon, Thomas, 2010. "Two-Tier Labor Markets in the Great Recession: France vs. Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 5340, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Samuel Bentolila & Pierre Cahuc & Juan J. Dolado & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2010. "Two-Tier Labor Markets In The Great Recession: France Vs. Spain," Working Papers wp2010_1009, CEMFI.
- Gustav Feichtinger & Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2011.
"The reproductive value as part of the shadow price of population,"
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 24(28), pages 709-718, May.
- Gustav Feichtinger & Michael Kuhn & Alexia Prskawetz & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2011. "The Reproductive Value as Part of the Shadow Price of Population," Working Papers 1106, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
- Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Ingrid Kubin & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2012. "Coping with Inefficiencies in a New Economic Geography Model," Working Papers 1204, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
- Alícia Adserà, 2004. "Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 17-43, February.
- Pedro Mira & Namkee Ahn, 2001. "Job bust, baby bust?: Evidence from Spain," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 505-521.
- Browning, Martin & Deaton, Angus & Irish, Margaret, 1985. "A Profitable Approach to Labor Supply and Commodity Demands over the Life-Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 503-43, May.
- Lars Dommermuth & Jane E. Klobas & Trude Lappegård, 2009. "Now or later? The theory of planned behaviour and fertility intentions," Working Papers 020, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
- Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Rachel Margolis & Mikko Myrskylä, 2011. "A Global Perspective on Happiness and Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(1), pages 29-56, 03.
- Diane J. Macunovich, 1995. "The Butz-Ward Fertility Model in the Light of More Recent Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(2), pages 229-255.
- Tomáš Sobotka & Vegard Skirbekk & Dimiter Philipov, 2011. "Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(2), pages 267-306, 06.
- S. Morgan, 1982. "Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 315-334, August.
- Tineke Fokkema & Helga de Valk & Joop De Beer & Coen van Duin, 2008. "The Netherlands: Childbearing within the context of a "Poldermodel" society," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(21), pages 743-794, July.
- S. Morgan, 1981. "Intention and uncertainty at later stages of childbearing: the united states 1965 and 1970," Demography, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 267-285, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Frank Kolesnik).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.