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Long-term effects of labor market conditions on family formation for Japanese youth

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  • Yuki Hashimoto
  • Ayako Kondo

Abstract

This study aims to examine how each cohort's family formation is affected by labor market conditions experienced in youth in Japan. Although deterioration in youth employment opportunities has often been blamed for Japan's declining marriage and fertility rates, the effects of slack labor market conditions on marriage and fertility are theoretically unclear. We estimate the effects of regional labor market conditions on marriage and fertility, controlling for nation-wide year effects and prefecture fixed effects, and find the following. First, the male unemployment rate is negatively correlated with marriage of women in the local labor market, although the correlation is weak and concentrated on the less educated group. Second, high school-educated women who experienced a recession while entering the labor market are less likely to have children and tend to marry later. In contrast, a recession at entry to the labor market rather increases fertility among college-educated women. The overall impact of labor market conditions experienced in youth on family formation is relatively weak, compared to the substantial losses in earnings and employment stability documented by the existing studies.

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Paper provided by Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University in its series ISER Discussion Paper with number 0789.

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Date of creation: Sep 2010
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Handle: RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0789

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  1. Gould, Eric D & Paserman, Marco Daniele, 2002. "Waiting for Mr Right: Rising Inequality and Declining Marriage Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2004. "Booms, Busts, and Babies’ Health," Working Papers 250, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Center for Health and Wellbeing..
  3. Yuji Genda & Ayako Kondo & Souichi Ohta, 2010. "Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
  4. Ayako Kondo, 2008. "Female Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation," Discussion Papers 0809-08, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  5. Ermisch, John & Ogawa, Naohiro, 1994. "Age at Motherhood in Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 393-420, November.
  6. Kazuyasu Sakamoto & Yukinobu Kitamura, 2006. "Sedaikan kankei kara mita kekkon kodo [in Japanese]," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d06-198, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  7. Yoshio Higuchi, 2001. "Women's Employment in Japan and the Timing of Marriage and Childbirth," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 52(2), pages 156-184.
  8. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
  9. Schultz, T.P., 1993. "Marital Status and Fertility in the United States: Welfare and Labor Market Effects," Papers 703, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  10. HIGUCHI Yoshio & MATSUURA Toshiyuki & SATO Kazuma, 2007. "Impact of Regional Factors on Births and Wives' Continuation in Employment - Panel survey of consumers by the Institute for Research on Household Economics (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  11. Butz, William P & Ward, Michael P, 1979. "The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 318-28, June.
  12. Francine D. Blau & Lawrence M. Kahn & Jane Waldfogel, 2000. "Understanding Young Women's Marriage Decisions: The Role of Labor and Marriage Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 7510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. XXX, Shuya & Iwata, Shinichiro, 2012. "Fertility and the user cost of home ownership: Evidence from regional panel data," MPRA Paper 37387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.

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