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The impact of individual and aggregate unemployment on fertility in Norway

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  • Øystein Kravdal

    (University of Oslo)

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    Abstract

    Continuous-time hazard models are estimated from register-based birth, migration, education and unemployment histories for the complete Norwegian population, linked with aggregate data for municipalities. The analysis covers the period 1992-98. First-birth rates are slightly higher among women who had been unemployed twelve months before than among others, whereas higher-order birth rates are slightly lower. Although men’s unemployment has a more pronounced negative effect, according to paternity rate models, the overall conclusion is that unemployment in Norway has had a negligible impact on fertility through individual-level effects. Aggregate-level effects are more important. Higher-order birth rates are lower in municipalities where men’s or women’s unemployment is high than elsewhere. All in all, the peak unemployment level of 6% experienced in 1993 is found to be associated with a reduction of about 0.08 in total fertility. The results accord well with economic theories for first and higher-order births that are based on the assumption that women are still the primary caretakers.

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    File URL: http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/10/6-10.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 10 (April)
    Pages: 263-294

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    Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:10

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    Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

    Related research

    Keywords: birth rate; fertility; multilevel; parity-specific; register data; unemployment;

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    References

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    1. Macunovich, D.J., 1996. "Relative Income and Price of Time: Exploring their effcts on U.S. Fertility and Female Labor Force Participation, 1963-1993," Department of Economics Working Papers 174, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    2. ûivind Anti Nilsen & Alf Erling Risa & Alf Torstensen, 2000. "Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 21-34.
    3. Roed,K. & Zhang,T., 2000. "Labour market transitions and economic incentives," Memorandum 15/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. De Cooman, Eric & Ermisch, John F & Joshi, Heather, 1985. "The Next Birth and the Labour Market: A Dynamic Model of Births in England and Wales," CEPR Discussion Papers 37, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. Macunovich, D.J. & Easterlin, R.A., 1990. "Application Of Granger-Sims Causality Tests To Monthly Fertility Data, 1958-1984," Department of Economics Working Papers 142, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. John Ermisch, 1988. "Econometric Analysis of Birth Rate Dynamics in Britain," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 563-576.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Adriaan Kalwij, 2010. "The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe," Demography, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 503-519, May.
    2. Alicia Adsera, 2011. "The interplay of employment uncertainty and education in explaining second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(16), pages 513-544, August.
    3. Emilia Del Bono & Andrea Weber & Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 2011. "Fertility and Economic Instability: The Role of Unemployment and Job Displacement," NRN working papers 2011-02, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Karin E. Lundström & Gunnar Andersson, 2012. "Labor-market status, migrant status and first childbearing in Sweden," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 27(25), pages 719-742, December.
    5. Henriette Engelhardt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2002. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-052, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Michaela Kreyenfeld, 2005. "Economic uncertainty and fertility postponement: evidence from German panel data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2005-034, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. FFF1Andres NNN1Vikat, 2004. "Women’s Labor Force Attachment and Childbearing in Finland," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(8), pages 177-212, April.
    8. David De Wachter & Karel Neels, 2011. "Educational differentials in fertility intentions and outcomes: family formation in Flanders in the early 1990s," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 9(1), pages 227-258.
    9. Maria Rita Testa & Stuart Basten, 2012. "Have Lifetime Fertility Intentions Declined During the “Great Recession”?," Working Papers 1209, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    10. Christian Schmitt, 2012. "Labour market integration, occupational uncertainty, and fertility choices in Germany and the UK," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(12), pages 253-292, April.
    11. FFF1Gunnar NNN1Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176, April.
    12. Karsten Hank, 2002. "The differential influence of women´s residential district on the risk of entering first marriage and motherhood in Western Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Gunnar Andersson, 2003. "Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Sebastian Klüsener, 2009. "An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Joop Beer & Ingeborg Deerenberg, 2007. "An Explanatory Model for Projecting Regional Fertility Differences in the Netherlands," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 511-528, December.
    16. Schmitt, Christian, 2012. "A Cross-National Perspective on Unemployment and First Births," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 303-335.
    17. Hill Kulu & Andres Vikat & Gunnar Andersson, 2006. "Settlement size and fertility in the Nordic countries," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2006-024, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Karsten Hank, 2002. "The geographic context of male nuptiality in western Germany during the 1980s and 1990s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(15), pages 523-536, October.
    19. Michaela Kreyenfeld & Gunnar Andersson, 2013. "Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: a comparison of Denmark and Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Gunnar Andersson & Ann-Zofie Duvander & Karsten Hank, 2004. "Erwerbsstatus und Familienentwicklung in Schweden aus paarbezogener Perspektive," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2004-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    21. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    22. Daniele Vignoli & Sven Drefahl & Gustavo De Santis, 2012. "Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(2), pages 41-62, January.

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