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Climate Change and Extreme Events: an Assessment of Economic Implications

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Author Info

  • Roberto Roson

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari)

  • Alvaro Calzadilla

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Francesco Pauli

    (University of Padua)

Abstract

We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect stort-term effects(variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economies, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.

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File URL: http://www.unive.it/media/allegato/DIP/Economia/Working_papers/Working_papers_2006/WP_DSE_Calzadilla_Pauli_Roson_18_06.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari" in its series Working Papers with number 2006_18.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2006_18

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Related research

Keywords: Climate Change; Extreme Events; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Precautionary Savings; Economic Growth;

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References

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  1. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
  2. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard Tol, 2007. "Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 37(3), pages 549-571, July.
  3. Maria Berrittella & Katrin Rehdanz & Arjen Y. Hoekstra & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "The Economic Impact Of Restricted Water Supply: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Working Papers FNU-93, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2006.
  4. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Economy-Wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Human Health," Working Papers 2005.97, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Maria Berrittella & Andrea Bigano & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Analysis Of Climate Change Impacts On Tourism," Working Papers FNU-49, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Nov 2004.
  6. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Enrica De Cian & Elisa Lanzi & Roberto Roson, 2007. "The Impact of Temperature Change on Energy Demand: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," Working Papers 2007.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. K. Jenkins, 2013. "Indirect economic losses of drought under future projections of climate change: a case study for Spain," Natural Hazards, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1967-1986, December.
  3. Roberto Roson & Francesco Bosello & Enrica De Cian, 2007. "Climate Change, Energy Demand and Market Power in a General Equilibrium Model of the World Economy," Working Papers 2007_09, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  4. Jaume Rosselló Nadal, 2009. "The impact of the NAO index on European Airline Transit," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/5, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
  5. Naeem Akram, 2012. "Is climate change hindering economic growth of Asian economies?," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 19(2), pages 1-18, December.

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