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Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Calzadilla, Alvaro
  • Zhu, Tingju
  • Rehdanz, Katrin
  • Tol, Richard S.J.
  • Ringler, Claudia

Abstract

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 93 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 150-165

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:93:y:2013:i:c:p:150-165

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

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Keywords: Computable general equilibrium; Climate change; Agriculture; Sub-Saharan Africa;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Fundamental questions on the economics of climate adaptation: Outlines of a new research programme," UFZ Reports 05/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
  2. Heuson, Clemens & Gawel, Erik & Gebhardt, Oliver & Hansjürgens, Bernd & Lehmann, Paul & Meyer, Volker & Schwarze, Reimund, 2012. "Ökonomische Grundfragen der Klimaanpassung: Umrisse eines neuen Forschungsprogramms," UFZ Reports 02/2012, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ).
  3. Henderson, J. Vernon & Storeygard, Adam & Deichmann, Uwe, 2014. "50 years of urbanization in Africa : examining the role of climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6925, The World Bank.
  4. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
  5. Thurlow, James & Yu, Winston, 2011. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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