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Evidence on the Demographic Transition

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Author Info
Carol Scotese Lehr () (Department of Economics, VCU School of Business)

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Abstract

This study searches for an inverted “U” fertility path over the demographic transition. A GMM/IV estimator is employed to estimate how fertility is causally related to education and income and whether fertility responds differently to changes in those variables within different phases of the transition. The data suggest that (1) increases in education have a positive effect on fertility when education and income are low and fertility is high, (2) increases in education lower fertility only when income is sufficiently high and (3) increases in income are the dominant causal factor of fertility decline during the demographic transition.

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File URL: http://www.people.vcu.edu/~cslehr/VCU/Papers/demtrans.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by VCU School of Business, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0302.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:vcu:wpaper:0302

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Postal: Box 844000, Richmond, VA 23284-4000
Phone: 804/828-1717
Web page: http://www.bus.vcu.edu/economics/
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  1. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment Updates and Implications," NBER Working Papers 7911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri, 2002. "Technological Progress and Economic Transformation," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports 3, Economie d'Avant Garde. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong Wha, 1996. "International Measures of Schooling Years and Schooling Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 218-23, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Morand, Olivier F, 1999. " Endogenous Fertility, Income Distribution, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 331-49, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S279-88, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dahan, Momi & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1998. " Demographic Transition, Income Distribution, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 29-52, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Easterly, William, 1999. " Life during Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 239-76, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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