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The Disability Option: Labor Market Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Health Risks

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Abstract

We evaluate the contribution of changing macroeconomic conditions and demographics to the increase in Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) over recent decades. Within our quantitative framework, multiple sectors differentially expose workers to health and economic risks, both of which affect individuals’ decisions to apply for SSDI. Over the transition, falling wages at the bottom of the distribution increased awards by 27% in the 1980s and 90s and aging demographics rose in importance thereafter. The model also implies two-thirds of the decline in working-age male employment from 1985 to 2013, three-fourths of which eventually goes on SSDI.

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  • Amanda Michaud & David Wiczer, 2018. "The Disability Option: Labor Market Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Health Risks," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20187, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwo:hcuwoc:20187
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Workers with a disability : A closer look at disability in the U.S. civilian labor force
      by ? in FRED blog on 2021-05-06 13:00:00
    2. The Disability Option: Labor Market Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Health Risks
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2019-01-31 02:42:18

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    Cited by:

    1. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Borella, Margherita & Yang, Fang, 2019. "The lost ones: the opportunities and outcomes of non-college educated Americans born in the 1960s," CEPR Discussion Papers 13582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2020. "A Structural Analysis of Mental Health and Labor Market Trajectories," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 20/726, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Michaud, Amanda & Nelson, Jaeger & Wiczer, David, 2018. "Vocational considerations and trends in Social Security Disability," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 41-51.
    4. Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2020. "The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 67-115.
    5. Zhixiu Yu, 2021. "Why Are Older Men Working More? The Role of Social Security," Working Papers 2021-041, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. FUKAI Taiyo & ICHIMURA Hidehiko & KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2021. "Medical Expenditures over the Life Cycle: Persistent Risks and Insurance," Discussion papers 21073, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Margherita Borella & Fang Yang & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2019. "The changing opportunities and outcomes of non-college educated Americans," 2019 Meeting Papers 206, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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