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The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s

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  • Margherita Borella
  • Mariacristina De Nardi
  • Fang Yang

Abstract

White, non-college-educated Americans born in the 1960s face shorter life expectancies, higher medical expenses, and lower wages per unit of human capital compared with those born in the 1940s; men’s wages declined more than women’s. After documenting these changes, we use a life-cycle model of couples and singles to evaluate their effects. The drop in wages depressed the labor supply of men and increased that of women, especially in married couples. Their shorter life expectancy reduced their retirement savings, but the increase in out-of-pocket medical expenses increased savings by more. Welfare losses, measured as a onetime asset compensation, are 12.5%, 8%, and 7.2% of the present discounted value of earnings for single men, couples, and single women, respectively. Lower wages explain 47%–58% of these losses, shorter life expectancies 25%–34%, and higher medical expenses account for the rest.

Suggested Citation

  • Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Fang Yang, 2020. "The Lost Ones: The Opportunities and Outcomes of White, Non-College-Educated Americans Born in the 1960s," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 67-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/707173
    DOI: 10.1086/707173
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    3. Nicolas A. Roys & Christopher R. Taber, 2019. "Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men," NBER Working Papers 26453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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