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Australia and the GFC: Saved by Astute Fiscal Policy?

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  • Nicolaas Groenewold

    (Business School, University of Western Australia)

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    Abstract

    Both before and after the federal election campaign in 2010, Australians were frequently told that they were spared the worst effects of the Global Financial Crisis because of the government’s timely and decisive fiscal stimulus. However, there are at least two other possibilities: monetary policy and foreign demand. This paper assesses the relative importance of these possibilities in driving output in the past few years. It does this within the framework of a structural vector-autoregressive model based on recent literature measuring the effects of fiscal and/or monetary policy on output. The results suggest that the government’s claims are considerably exaggerated.

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    File URL: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0018/2254050/12-28-Australia-and-the-GFC,-Saved-by-Astute-Fiscal-Policy.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 12-28.

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    Length: 62 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:12-28

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    1. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 12822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    3. Candelon, Bertrand & Muysken, Joan & Vermeulen, Robert, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update," Research Memorandum 050, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Robert Kollmann & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Financial Crisis: Standard Policy versus Bank Rescue Measures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 77-81, May.
    7. Aizenman Joshua & Pasricha Gurnain K., 2011. "The Net Fiscal Expenditure Stimulus in the US, 2008-9: Less than What You Might Think, and Less than the Fiscal Stimuli of Most OECD Countries," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-6, June.
    8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    9. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Muscatelli, V. Anton & Tirelli, Patrizio & Trecroci, Carmine, 2004. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 257-280, June.
    12. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2010. "Discretionary Fiscal Policy: Review and Estimates for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2948, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry, 2007. "The Identification Of Fiscal And Monetary Policy In A Structural Var," CAMA Working Papers 2007-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Fragetta, Matteo & Kirsanova, Tatiana, 2010. "Strategic monetary and fiscal policy interactions: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 855-879, October.
    15. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
    16. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    17. Kasa, Ken & Popper, Helen, 1997. "Monetary Policy in Japan: A Structural VAR Analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 275-295, September.
    18. Nakashima, Kiyotaka, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's operating procedures and the identification of monetary policy shocks: A reexamination using the Bernanke-Mihov approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 406-433, September.
    19. Olivier Coibion, 2011. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks Big or Small?," NBER Working Papers 17034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Hess Chung & Eric Leeper, 2007. "What Has Financed Government Debt?," Caepr Working Papers 2007-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    21. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    22. Anthony J. Makin, 2010. "Did Fiscal Stimulus Counter Recession? Evidence from the National Accounts," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201008, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    23. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland & Trabandt, Mathias, 2012. "Fiscal policy and the 'Great Recession' in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1429, European Central Bank.
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