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Aggregation of Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing Theory: A Mean-Variance Analysis

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Author Info
Carl Chiarella () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)
Roberto Dieci (Dipartimento di Matematica per le Scienze Economiche e Sociali, University of Bologna)
Xue-Zhong He () (School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney)

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Abstract

Within the standard mean-variance framework, this paper provides a procedure to aggregate the heterogeneous beliefs in not only risk preferences and expected payoffs but also variances/covariances into a market consensus belief. Consequently, an asset equilibrium price under heterogeneous beliefs is derived. We show that the market aggregate behavior is in principle a weighted average of heterogeneous individual behaviors. The CAPM-like equilibrium price and return relationships under heterogeneous beliefs are obtained. The impact of diversity of heterogeneous beliefs on the market aggregate risk preference, asset volatility, equilibrium price and optimal demands of investors is examined. As a special case, our result provides a simple explanation for the empirical relation between cross-sectional volatility and expected returns.

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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 186.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:186

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bart, John & Masse, Isidore J., 1981. "Divergence of Opinion and Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 23-34, March. [Downloadable!]
  2. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Zapatero, Fernando, 1998. "Effects of financial innovations on market volatility when beliefs are heterogeneous," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 597-626, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy & Anna Scherbina, 2002. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2113-2141, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Laurent Calvet ; Jean-Michel Grandmont ; Isabelle Lemaire, 2001. "Aggregation of Heterogenous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Complete Financial Markets," Working Papers 2001-01, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 09-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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  8. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time: An Analysis of Pessimism and Doubt," Post-Print halshs-00176500_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Rothschild, Michael & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1970. "Increasing risk: I. A definition," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 225-243, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Abel, Andrew B., 2002. "An exploration of the effects of pessimism and doubt on asset returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1075-1092, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Bounded Rationality and Market Dysfunctionality," Research Paper Series 233, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
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