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Hétérogénéité des croyances, prix du risque et volatilité des marchés

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Author Info

  • Elyès Jouini

    ()
    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - CNRS : UMR7534 - Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX)

  • Clotilde Napp

    (CEREMADE - CEntre de REcherches en MAthématiques de la DEcision - CNRS : UMR7534 - Université Paris Dauphine - Paris IX)

Abstract

Les divergences des analystes dans leurs prévisions des résultats futurs des entreprises est un fait. De manière plus générale, la divergence d'opinion des investisseurs quant à l'évolution future des cours boursiers ou des fondamentaux de l'économie est largement étayée dans la littérature. Il y a cependant peu d'études relatives à l'impact de cette divergence sur les prix, les taux d'intérêt et la volatilité des marchés.Le but de cet article est d'analyser les conséquences de l'introduction de croyances subjectives hétérogènes dans le modèle d'équilibre standard. Plus précisément, en partant d'un marché avec croyances hétérogènes, nous tenterons de répondre aux questions suivantes: 1) est-il possible de définir une croyance de consensus, c.-à-d. une croyance qui, si elle était commune à tous les individus, produirait les mêmes prix d'équilibre et les mêmes volumes d'échange que dans l'économie initiale? 2) est-il encore possible dans un tel contexte de définir un agent représentatif? 3) quel est l'impact de l'hétérogénéité des croyances sur la prime de risque (ou le prix du marché du risque) ? 4) quel est l'impact de l'hétérogénéité des croyances sur les taux d'intérêt? 5) quel est l'impact de l'hétérogénéité des croyances sur le prix des actifs financiers et sur leur volatilité?

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00176465.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2004
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Publication status: Published, Revue d'Economie Finnacière, 2004, 125-138
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00176465

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00176465/en/
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Keywords: croyances hétérogènes; prix;

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  1. Pok-sang Lam & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark, 2000. "Asset Pricing with Distorted Beliefs: Are Equity Returns Too Good to Be True?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 787-805, September.
  2. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  4. Detemple Jerome & Murthy Shashidhar, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 294-320, April.
  5. Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2007. "Consensus consumer and intertemporal asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs," Post-Print halshs-00152348, HAL.
  6. Varian, Hal R, 1985. " Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-17, March.
  7. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  8. Williams, Joseph T., 1977. "Capital asset prices with heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 219-239, November.
  9. Michael Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield, . "An Examination of Heterogeneous Beliefs with a Short Sale Constraint," GSIA Working Papers 2002-E2, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  10. Michael Gallmeyer, . "Beliefs and Volatility," GSIA Working Papers 2000-E42, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  11. Andrew B. Abel, . "Asset Prices Under Heterogenous Beliefs: Implications for the Equity Premium," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 9-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  12. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, 09.
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