Are Risk Averse Agents More Optimistic? A Bayesian Estimation Approach
AbstractOur aim is to analyze the link between optimism and risk aversion in a subjective expected utility setting and to estimate the average level of optimism when weighted by risk tolerance. This quantity is of particular importance since it characterizes the consensus belief in risk-taking situations with heterogeneous beliefs. Its estimation leads to a nontrivial statistical problem. We start from a large lottery survey (1,536 individuals). We assume that individuals have true unobservable characteristics and that their answers in the survey are noisy realizations of these characteristics. We adopt a Bayesian approach for the statistical analysis of this problem and use an hybrid MCMC approximation method to numerically estimate the distributions of the unobservable characteristics. We obtain that individuals are on average pessimistic and that pessimism and risk tolerance are positively correlated. As a consequence, we conclude that the consensus belief is biased towards pessimism.
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Date of creation: 2008
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Publication status: Published, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2008, 843-860
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Bayesian estimation; MCMC scheme; importance sampling; pessimism; risk tolerance; risk aversion; consensus belief;
Other versions of this item:
- Selima Ben Mansour & Elyès Jouini & Jean-Michel Marin & Clotilde Napp & Christian Robert, 2008. "Are risk-averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 843-860.
- Selima Benmansour & Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp & Jean-Michel Marin & Christian Robert, 2007. "Are risk averse agents more optimistic? A Bayesian estimation approach," Working Papers halshs-00163678, HAL.
- D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
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