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The labor market effects of payroll taxes in a middle-income country: Evidence from Colombia

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  • Adriana Kugler
  • Maurice Kugler

Abstract

We use a panel of manufacturing plants from Colombia to analyze how the rise in payroll tax rates over the 1980’s and 1990’s affected the labor market. Our estimates indicate that formal wages fall by between 1.4% and 2.3% as a result of a 10% rise in payroll taxes. This 'less-than-full-shifting' is likely to be the result of weak linkages between benefits and taxes and the presence of downward wage rigidities induced by a binding minimum wage in Colombia. Because the costs of taxation are only partly shifted from employers to employees, employment should also fall. Our results indicate that a 10% increase in payroll taxes lowered formal employment by between 4% and 5%. In addition, we find less shifting and larger disemployment effects for production than non-production workers. These results suggest that policies aimed at boosting the relative demand of low-skill workers by reducing social security taxes on those with low earnings may be effective in a country like Colombia, especially if tax cuts are targeted to indirect benefits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 721.

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Date of creation: Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:721

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

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Keywords: Payroll taxes; shifting; wage rigidity; minimum wages;

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References

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  1. Stephen Nickell & Brian Bell, 1996. "Would cutting payroll taxes on the unskilled have a significant effect on unemployment?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20687, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Kevin Lang, 2004. "The Effect of the Payroll Tax on Earnings: A Test of Competing Models of Wage Determination," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 360, Econometric Society.
  3. Adriana D. Kugler, 1999. "The impact of firing costs on turnover and unemployment: Evidence from the Colombian labour market reform," Economics Working Papers 388, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
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