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Does an Overvalued Real Exchange Rate Create More Policy Uncertainty? Singaporean Case Using GARCH Model

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Author Info
Kodrat Wibowo () (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

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Abstract

In this paper, I use GARCH model to explain the relationship between real exchange rate and its uncertainty using real exchange rate data of Singapore. The result supports no evidence that overvalued real exchange rate creates uncertainty of exchange rate policy in Singapore. This may give some ideas to country like Indonesia or Thailand to still maintain the peg system and not easily, just accept the idea of using currency board system (CBS) or other strategies in its exchange rate policy. Indonesia needs to learn how Singaporean economic strategy brings the country to higher levels of economic development while still maintaining peg system

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File URL: http://www.equitablepolicy.org/wpaper/200001.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200001.

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Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision: Oct 2000
Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200001

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Related research
Keywords: GARCH; exchange rate; policy uncertainty; Singapore;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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