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Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in ASEAN:A New Empirical Test Based on Intra-daily Data

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Sanae Ohno

    (Faculty of Economics, Musashi University)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate what affected the post-crisis exchange rates of three ASEAN countries: Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia. Our critical departure from previous studies is the use of intra-daily exchange rates. The use of the intra-daily data is useful in removing possible estimation biases which the choice of numeraire may cause. It can also contrast exchange rate movements during the time zone when the government intervention is active with those when the intervention is not active. We examine how and when the ASEAN currencies changed their correlations with the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. We find significant structural breaks in the correlations during the time zone when East Asian market is open. In the post-crisis period, the first structural break happened when Malaysia adopted the fixed exchange rate and the second break happened when some East Asian countries introduced inflation targeting. The structural breaks suggest strong monetary and real linkages among the ASEAN countries.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-441.

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Length: 38pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2006cf441

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jeffrey Frankel & Sergio Schmukler & Luis Serven, 2000. "Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 7901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hernandez, Leonardo & Montiel, Peter J., 2003. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 336-369, September.
  4. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  6. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, 01.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Takatoshi Ito & Eiji Ogawa & Yuri Nagataki Sasaki, 1999. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," NBER Working Papers 6729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN," CEPR Discussion Papers 2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  11. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
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