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Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia after the Crisis: Implications from Intra-daily Data

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Author Info
Shin-ichi Fukuda (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)
Sanae Ohno (Takachiho University)

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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate what affected the post-crisis exchange rates of five East Asian countries: Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia. Based on intra-daily observations, we examine how and when these five East Asian currencies changed their correlations with the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. During the time zones when East Asian markets were closed, the East Asian currencies kept strong correlations with the U.S. dollar throughout the pos-crisis period. We, however, find structural breaks in the correlations during the time zones when East Asian markets were open. In the post-crisis period, the first structural break arose when Malaysia adopted the fixed exchange rate. The second structural break occurred when Indonesia and Thailand introduced inflation targeting. The structural breaks suggest strong monetary and real linkage among East Asian countries. After early 2000, the East Asian currencies increased correlations with the U.S. dollar and began reverting back to de facto pegs against the U.S. dollar in terms of their growth rates.

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Paper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-247.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
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Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2003cf247

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  3. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2002. "Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia: Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate and China’s Stabilizing Role," Working Papers 02010, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, 01. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 1995. "The Structural Determinants of Invoice Currencies in Japan: The Case of Foreign Trades with East Asian Countries," Discussion Paper Series a307, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  7. Ronald I. McKinnon, 2001. "After the Crisis, The East Asian Dollar Standard Resurrected: An Interpretation of High Frequency Exchange Rate Pegging," Working Papers 042001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  8. Tamim Bayoumi & Paolo Mauro, 1999. "The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 99/162, International Monetary Fund.
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  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Linda S. Goldberg & Michael W. Klein, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Trade and Real Exchange Rate Linkages in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Wei, S.J. & Frankel, J.A., 1992. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc: Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," Papers 92-08, University of Birmingham - International Financial Group.
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  13. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2002. "Post-crisis Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-181, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
  14. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements for ASEAN," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 121-148, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Eiji Ogawa & Takeshi Kudo, 2007. "Possible depreciation of the US dollar for unsustainable current account deficit in the United States," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(4), pages 24-30, 01. [Downloadable!]
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