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Price Discovery on Foreign Exchange Markets with Differentially Informed Traders

Author

Listed:
  • Frank de Jong

    (University of Amsterdam and CEPR)

  • Ronald Mahieu

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Peter Schotman

    (Limburg Institute of Financial Economics, Maastricht University, and CEPR)

  • Irma van Leeuwen

    (Limburg Institute of Financial Economics, Maastricht University)

Abstract

This paper uses Reuters exchange rate data to investigate thecontributions to the price discovery process by individual banks in theforeign exchange market. We propose multivariate time series models aswell as models in tick time to study the dynamic relations between thequotes of individual banks. We investigate the hypothesis that Germanbanks are price leaders in the deutschmark/dollar market. Our empiricalresults suggest an important but not exclusive role for German banks inthe price discovery process. There is also a group of banks, German andnon-German, that lags behind the market and does not contribute to theprice discovery process. In contrast to Peiers~(1997) we do not findevidence for stronger price leadership of Deutsche bank on days withsuspected Bundesbank interventions in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank de Jong & Ronald Mahieu & Peter Schotman & Irma van Leeuwen, 1999. "Price Discovery on Foreign Exchange Markets with Differentially Informed Traders," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-032/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:19990032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    2. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
    3. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
    4. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1998. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(3), pages 1111-1130, June.
    6. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-460, November.
    7. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    8. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. "Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
    9. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    10. Huang, Roger D & Masulis, Ronald W, 1999. "FX Spreads and Dealer Competition across the 24-Hour Trading Day," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsang, Kwok Ping & Yang, Zichao, 2021. "The market for bitcoin transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 425-448, September.
    3. Calcagno, R. & Lovo, S.M., 2002. "Market Efficiency and Price Formation When Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," Discussion Paper 2002-42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Calcagno, R. & Lovo, S.M., 2002. "Market Efficiency and Price Formation When Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," Other publications TiSEM 30951a58-24f2-43f0-9e35-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    5. LOVO, Stefano M. & CALCAGNO, R., 2001. "Market efficiency and Price Formation when Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," HEC Research Papers Series 737, HEC Paris.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; moment estimators; high frequency data; microstructure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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