Random walk or a run. Market microstructure analysis of foreign exchange rate movements based on conditional probability
AbstractUsing tick-by-tick data for the dollar--yen and euro--dollar exchange rates recorded on the actual transaction platform, a ‘run’—continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks—does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it is started. Indeed, conditional probabilities of a run continuing in the same direction after several consecutive observations exceed 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such a run tendency. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using tick-by-tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by a larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting exchange rate movements. The findings reported here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.
Volume (Year): 12 (2012)
Issue (Month): 6 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20
You can help add them by filling out this form.
reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.