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Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability

Author

Listed:
  • Yuko Hashimoto
  • Takatoshi Ito
  • Takaaki Ohnishi
  • Misako Takayasu
  • Hideki Takayasu
  • Tsutomu Watanabe

Abstract

Using tick-by-tick data of the dollar-yen and euro-dollar exchange rates recorded in the actual transaction platform, a "run" -- continuous increases or decreases in deal prices for the past several ticks -- does have some predictable information on the direction of the next price movement. Deal price movements, that are consistent with order flows, tend to continue a run once it started i.e., conditional probability of deal prices tend to move in the same direction as the last several times in a row is higher than 0.5. However, quote prices do not show such tendency of a run. Hence, a random walk hypothesis is refuted in a simple test of a run using the tick by tick data. In addition, a longer continuous increase of the price tends to be followed by larger reversal. The findings suggest that those market participants who have access to real-time, tick-by-tick transaction data may have an advantage in predicting the exchange rate movement. Findings here also lend support to the momentum trading strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito & Takaaki Ohnishi & Misako Takayasu & Hideki Takayasu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2008. "Random Walk or A Run: Market Microstructure Analysis of the Foreign Exchange Rate Movements based on Conditional Probability," NBER Working Papers 14160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14160
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    1. In praise of belief in efficient markets
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2009-02-13 17:14:47

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    4. Ichiki, Shingo & Nishinari, Katsuhiro, 2015. "Simple stochastic order-book model of swarm behavior in continuous double auction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 420(C), pages 304-314.
    5. Rechenthin, Michael & Street, W. Nick, 2013. "Using conditional probability to identify trends in intra-day high-frequency equity pricing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(24), pages 6169-6188.
    6. Shingo Ichiki & Katsuhiro Nishinari, 2014. "Simple Stochastic Order-Book Model of Swarm Behavior in Continuous Double Auction," Papers 1411.2215, arXiv.org.
    7. Schmidt, Anatoly B., 2009. "Detrending the realized volatility in the global FX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(9), pages 1887-1892.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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