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Price Discovery on Foreign Exchange Markets

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  • de Jong, Frank
  • Mahieu, Ronald J
  • Schotman, Peter C

Abstract

This paper uses Reuters exchange rate data to investigate the contributions to the price discovery process by individual banks in the foreign exchange market. We propose multivariate time series models as well as models in tick time to study the dynamic relations between the quotes of individual banks. We investigate the hypothesis that German banks are price leaders in the deutschmark/dollar market. Our empirical results suggest an important but not exclusive role for German banks in the price discovery process. There is also a group of banks, German and non-German, that lags behind the market and does not contribute to the price discovery process. We do not find evidence for stronger price leadership of Deutsche Bank on days with suspected Bundesbank interventions in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • de Jong, Frank & Mahieu, Ronald J & Schotman, Peter C, 1999. "Price Discovery on Foreign Exchange Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2296
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. de Jong, Frank & Nijman, Theo, 1997. "High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 259-277, June.
    2. Lyons, Richard K., 1995. "Tests of microstructural hypotheses in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 321-351.
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    5. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "The Summary Informativeness of Stock Trades: An Econometric Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 571-595.
    6. Goodhart, Charles, 1988. "The Foreign Exchange Market: A Random Walk with a Dragging Anchor," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 55(220), pages 437-460, November.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans, 2011. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9475.
    8. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    9. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. "Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
    10. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1993. "Assessing the Quality of a Security Market: A New Approach to Transaction-Cost Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 191-212.
    11. Richard K. Lyons, 2006. "The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026262205x, December.
    12. De Jong, Frank & Mahieu, Ronald & Schotman, Peter, 1998. "Price discovery in the foreign exchange market: an empirical analysis of the yen/dmark rate1, 2," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-27, February.
    13. Nijman, T.E. & de Jong, F.C.J.M., 1997. "High frequency analysis of lead-lag relationships between financial markets," Other publications TiSEM f4f406a0-771a-4af2-9364-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
    15. Huang, Roger D & Masulis, Ronald W, 1999. "FX Spreads and Dealer Competition across the 24-Hour Trading Day," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsang, Kwok Ping & Yang, Zichao, 2021. "The market for bitcoin transactions," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    2. Frank De Jong & Peter C. Schotman, 2010. "Price Discovery in Fragmented Markets," The Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-28, Winter.
    3. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
    4. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2008. "Local information in foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1383-1406, December.
    5. Calcagno, R. & Lovo, S.M., 2002. "Market Efficiency and Price Formation When Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," Other publications TiSEM 30951a58-24f2-43f0-9e35-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 425-448, September.
    7. Calcagno, R. & Lovo, S.M., 2002. "Market Efficiency and Price Formation When Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," Discussion Paper 2002-42, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. LOVO, Stefano M. & CALCAGNO, R., 2001. "Market efficiency and Price Formation when Dealers are Asymmetrically Informed," HEC Research Papers Series 737, HEC Paris.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rates; High Frequency Data; Microstructure; Moment Estimators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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