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The Impact of Cheap Natural Gas on Marginal Emissions from Electricity Generation and Implications for Energy

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We use quasi-experimental variation due to the introduction of fracking to estimate the impact of a decrease in natural gas prices on marginal air pollution emissions from electricity producers. We find natural gas generation has displaced coal fired generation as the marginal fuel source signi cantly changing the marginal emissions pro le. The impact of cheap natural gas varies across U.S. regions as a function of the existing stock of electricity generation. We demonstrate the impact of these changes on the environmental bene ts of energy policy by simulating the installation wind and solar generating capacity in di erent regions around the U.S. We construct an hourly data set of potential renewable generation for both wind and solar power and combine that with our estimated marginal emissions. CO2 emissions offset by wind and solar power have fallen over most, but not all of the country due to cheap natural gas.

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  • J. Scott Holladay & Jacob LaRiviere, 2015. "The Impact of Cheap Natural Gas on Marginal Emissions from Electricity Generation and Implications for Energy," Working Papers 2015-07, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ten:wpaper:2015-07
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    File URL: http://web.utk.edu/~jhollad3/Marginal_Emissions.pdf
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    1. Catherine Hausman & Ryan Kellogg, 2015. "Welfare and Distributional Implications of Shale Gas," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 71-139.
    2. Kacker, Kanishka & Lange, Ian, 2022. "Inter-regional coal mine competition in the US: Evidence from rail restrictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Joseph A. Cullen & Erin T. Mansur, 2017. "Inferring Carbon Abatement Costs in Electricity Markets: A Revealed Preference Approach Using the Shale Revolution," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 106-133, August.
    4. Loomis, John & Haefele, Michelle, 2017. "Quantifying Market and Non-market Benefits and Costs of Hydraulic Fracturing in the United States: A Summary of the Literature," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 160-167.
    5. Matthew Doyle & Harrison Fell, 2016. "Fuel Prices, Restructuring, and Natural Gas Plant Operations," Working Papers 2016-03, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    6. Harrison Fell & Daniel T. Kaffine, 2018. "The Fall of Coal: Joint Impacts of Fuel Prices and Renewables on Generation and Emissions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 90-116, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy; air pollution; natural gas; renewable energy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

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