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Spatial Propagation of the Economic Impacts of Bombing: The Case of the 2006 War in Lebanon

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  • Eduardo A. Haddad

    ()

  • Yasuhide Okuyama

    ()

Abstract

The event of the Israeli bombing in Lebanon in the summer of 2006 is a unique example of a recent man-made disaster. The bombing actions were concentrated in time – they lasted roughly one month so that the time frame is still considered short in an economic modeling sense; they were also spatially focused – they reached not only various targeted infrastructure points across the country, but also scattered locations in the south of the country. Economic impacts of disasters caused by natural or man-made hazards are complex and difficult to assess and evaluate, due to the features and uniqueness of disasters; however, some methodologies have been utilized to analyze their impacts. This paper aims to evaluate the short run economic effects of the July 2006 War using an interregional CGE model for Lebanon. We look at the economy of the country just before the War and estimate what would be the hypothetical economy-wide impact had the Lebanese regions faced a reduction of physical capital stocks in the same magnitude of the estimated damages associated with the bombing events. In doing that, we are able to derive the estimates of the economic costs of the war related to the structural break in the availability of economic infrastructure in the country. A discussion on resiliency is also introduced.

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Paper provided by University of São Paulo (FEA-USP) in its series Working Papers, Department of Economics with number 2012_19.

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Date of creation: 14 Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2012wpecon19

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Keywords: D5; R1; Q54; R13;

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  1. Eduardo A. Haddad, 2012. "Progress on the Development of an Interregional Computable General Equilibrium Model for Lebanon: The Input-Output System," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2012_12, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  2. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2008. "A Search For Multiple Equilibria In Urban Industrial Structure," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 29-65.
  3. Brakman, Steven & Garretsen, Harry & Schramm, Marc, 2002. "The strategic bombing of German cities during World War II and its impact on city growth," Research Report 03C03, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  4. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2007. "Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 115-124.
  5. Haddad, Eduardo A. & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2005. "Market imperfections in a spatial economy: some experimental results," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 476-496, May.
  6. Edward Miguel & Gerard Roland, 2006. "The Long Run Impact of Bombing Vietnam," NBER Working Papers 11954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, Spring.
  8. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B.R., 1996. "Computable general equilibrium modelling for policy analysis and forecasting," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: H. M. Amman & D. A. Kendrick & J. Rust (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-85 Elsevier.
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