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Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios For The Usa

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Author Info
Richard S.J. Tol () (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

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Abstract

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/scenariousawp.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-101.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: May 2006
Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 35, 5310-5326.
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:101

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Related research
Keywords: Climate change; emissions scenarios; USA;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard S.J. Tol & Stephen W. Pacala & Robert Socolow, 2006. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Usa," Working Papers 2006.107, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Miketa, Asami & Mulder, Peter, 2005. "Energy productivity across developed and developing countries in 10 manufacturing sectors: Patterns of growth and convergence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 429-453, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kongsamut, Piyabha & Rebelo, Sergio & Xie, Danyang, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 68(4), pages 869-82, October.
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  6. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Tjalling C. Koopmans, 1966. "Objectives, Constraints and Outcomes in Optimal Growth Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 212, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-23.

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