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Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios For The Usa

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  • Richard S.J. Tol

    ()
    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin)

Abstract

A model of carbon dioxide emissions of the USA is presented. The model consists of population, income per capita, economic structure, final and primary energy intensity per sector, primary fuel mix, and emission coefficients. The model is simple enough to be calibrated to observations since 1850. The model is used to project emissions until 2100. Best guess carbon dioxide emissions are in the middle of the IPCC SRES scenarios, but incomes and energy intensities are on the high side, while carbon intensities are on the low side. The confidence interval suggests that the SRES scenarios do not span the range of not-implausible futures. Although the model can be calibrated to reflect structural changes in the economy, it cannot anticipate such changes. The data poorly constrain crucial scenario elements, particularly energy prices. This suggests that the range of future emissions is wider still.

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File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/scenariousawp.pdf
File Function: First version, 2006
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University in its series Working Papers with number FNU-101.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: May 2006
Date of revision: May 2006
Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 35, 5310-5326.
Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:101

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Keywords: Climate change; emissions scenarios; USA;

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References

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  4. Richard S.J. Tol & Stephen W. Pacala & Robert H. Socolow, 2006. "Understanding Long-Term Energy Use And Carbon Dioxide Emissions In The Usa," Working Papers FNU-100, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Mar 2006.
  5. Brian S. Fisher & Guy Jakeman & Hom M. Pant & Malte Schwoon & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Chimp: A Simple Population Model For Use In Integrated Assessment Of Global Environmental Change," Working Papers FNU-69, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jul 2005.
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  1. > Environmental and Natural Resource Economics > Climate economics > Emission scenarios
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Cited by:
  1. Andersson, Fredrik N.G. & Karpestam, Peter, 2013. "CO2 emissions and economic activity: Short- and long-run economic determinants of scale, energy intensity and carbon intensity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1285-1294.
  2. Meredith Fowlie, 2008. "Incomplete Environmental Regulation, Imperfect Competition, and Emissions Leakage," NBER Working Papers 14421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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