Uncertainty, Learning, and Optimal Technological Portfolios: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach to Climate Change
AbstractHow is the design of efficient climate policies affected by the potentials for induced technological change and for future learning about key parameter uncertainties? We address this question using a new integrated climate-economy model incorporating endogenous technological change to explore optimal technological portfolios against global warming in the presence of uncertainty and learning. We explicitly consider the interplays between induced innovation, the stringency of environmental policies, and possible environmental risks within the general equilibrium framework of probabilistic integrated assessment. We find that the value of resolving key scientific uncertainties would be non-trivial in the face of binding climate limits, but at the same time it can significantly decrease with induced innovation and knowledge spillovers that might otherwise be absent. The results also show that scientific uncertainties in climate change could justify immediate mitigation actions and accelerated investments in new energy technologies, reflecting risk-reducing considerations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 with number 54.
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Uncertainty; Learning; Optimal technological portfolios; Endogenous technological change; Stochastic growth model; Probabilistic integrated assessment; Carbon-free technology; Expected value of information;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-11-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2005-11-19 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-ENE-2005-11-19 (Energy Economics)
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