Modelling and forecasting short-term electricity load: a two step methodology
AbstractThe goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil) in its series Textos para discussão with number 495.
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-09-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2005-09-11 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2005-09-11 (Forecasting)
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