IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v230y2013i1p170-180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling special-day effects for forecasting intraday electricity demand

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Myung Suk

Abstract

We propose and apply a novel approach for modeling special-day effects to predict electricity demand in Korea. Notably, we model special-day effects on an hourly rather than a daily basis. Hourly specified predictor variables are implemented in the regression model with a seasonal autoregressive moving average (SARMA) type error structure in order to efficiently reflect the special-day effects. The interaction terms between the hour-of-day effects and the hourly based special-day effects are also included to capture the unique intraday patterns of special days more accurately. The multiplicative SARMA mechanism is employed in order to identify the double seasonal cycles, namely, the intraday effect and the intraweek effect. The forecast results of the suggested model are evaluated by comparing them with those of various benchmark models for the following year. The empirical results indicate that the suggested model outperforms the benchmark models for both special- and non-special day predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Myung Suk, 2013. "Modeling special-day effects for forecasting intraday electricity demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 170-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:230:y:2013:i:1:p:170-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.03.039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221713002725
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.03.039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alysha M De Livera & Rob J Hyndman, 2009. "Forecasting time series with complex seasonal patterns using exponential smoothing," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    2. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
    3. Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
    4. Smith, Michael, 2000. "Modeling and Short-term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 465-478, October.
    5. Hahn, Heiko & Meyer-Nieberg, Silja & Pickl, Stefan, 2009. "Electric load forecasting methods: Tools for decision making," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(3), pages 902-907, December.
    6. Gould, Phillip G. & Koehler, Anne B. & Ord, J. Keith & Snyder, Ralph D. & Hyndman, Rob J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid, 2008. "Forecasting time series with multiple seasonal patterns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 207-222, November.
    7. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 139-152, July.
    8. Pardo, Angel & Meneu, Vicente & Valor, Enric, 2002. "Temperature and seasonality influences on Spanish electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, January.
    9. Weinberg, Jonathan & Brown, Lawrence D. & Stroud, Jonathan R., 2007. "Bayesian Forecasting of an Inhomogeneous Poisson Process With Applications to Call Center Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 1185-1198, December.
    10. Taylor, James W. & de Menezes, Lilian M. & McSharry, Patrick E., 2006. "A comparison of univariate methods for forecasting electricity demand up to a day ahead," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16.
    11. Darbellay, Georges A. & Slama, Marek, 2000. "Forecasting the short-term demand for electricity: Do neural networks stand a better chance?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-83.
    12. Cancelo, José Ramón & Espasa, Antoni & Grafe, Rosmarie, 2008. "Forecasting the electricity load from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 588-602.
    13. James W. Taylor, 2008. "A Comparison of Univariate Time Series Methods for Forecasting Intraday Arrivals at a Call Center," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 253-265, February.
    14. Cottet R. & Smith M., 2003. "Bayesian Modeling and Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Load," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 839-849, January.
    15. Soares, Lacir J. & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: A comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 630-644.
    16. Haipeng Shen & Jianhua Z. Huang, 2008. "Interday Forecasting and Intraday Updating of Call Center Arrivals," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 391-410, July.
    17. Hippert, H.S. & Bunn, D.W. & Souza, R.C., 2005. "Large neural networks for electricity load forecasting: Are they overfitted?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 425-434.
    18. Joanna Nowicka-Zagrajek & Rafal Weron, 2002. "Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise," HSC Research Reports HSC/02/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    19. J W Taylor, 2003. "Short-term electricity demand forecasting using double seasonal exponential smoothing," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 799-805, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2018. "Short-run electricity load forecasting with combinations of stationary wavelet transforms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(1), pages 149-164.
    2. Sévi, Benoît, 2014. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 643-659.
    3. Kizilaslan, Recep & Freund, Steven & Iseri, Ali, 2016. "A data analytic approach to forecasting daily stock returns in an emerging marketAuthor-Name: Oztekin, Asil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 697-710.
    4. Sevim, Cuneyt & Oztekin, Asil & Bali, Ozkan & Gumus, Serkan & Guresen, Erkam, 2014. "Developing an early warning system to predict currency crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1095-1104.
    5. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-053 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Li, Z. & Hurn, A.S. & Clements, A.E., 2017. "Forecasting quantiles of day-ahead electricity load," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 60-71.
    7. Huber, Jakob & Stuckenschmidt, Heiner, 2020. "Daily retail demand forecasting using machine learning with emphasis on calendric special days," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1420-1438.
    8. Clements, A.E. & Hurn, A.S. & Li, Z., 2016. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(2), pages 522-530.
    9. Ayman A. Amin, 2020. "Bayesian Analysis of Double Seasonal Autoregressive Models," Sankhya B: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Springer;Indian Statistical Institute, vol. 82(2), pages 328-352, November.
    10. Elamin, Niematallah & Fukushige, Mototsugu, 2018. "Modeling and forecasting hourly electricity demand by SARIMAX with interactions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 257-268.
    11. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2018. "Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 259-268.
    12. Ding, Jia & Wang, Maolin & Ping, Zuowei & Fu, Dongfei & Vassiliadis, Vassilios S., 2020. "An integrated method based on relevance vector machine for short-term load forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 497-510.
    13. Miguel López & Carlos Sans & Sergio Valero & Carolina Senabre, 2019. "Classification of Special Days in Short-Term Load Forecasting: The Spanish Case Study," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Clements, A.E. & Hurn, A.S. & Li, Z., 2016. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(2), pages 522-530.
    2. Webel, Karsten, 2022. "A review of some recent developments in the modelling and seasonal adjustment of infra-monthly time series," Discussion Papers 31/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Amaral, Luiz Felipe & Souza, Reinaldo Castro & Stevenson, Maxwell, 2008. "A smooth transition periodic autoregressive (STPAR) model for short-term load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 603-615.
    4. Cancelo, José Ramón & Espasa, Antoni & Grafe, Rosmarie, 2007. "Forecasting from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws078418, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Arora, Siddharth & Taylor, James W., 2018. "Rule-based autoregressive moving average models for forecasting load on special days: A case study for France," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 259-268.
    6. Taylor, James W., 2008. "An evaluation of methods for very short-term load forecasting using minute-by-minute British data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 645-658.
    7. Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosselló, Jaume, 2011. "Estimation of tourism-induced electricity consumption: The case study of Balearics Islands, Spain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-444, May.
    8. Taylor, James W. & Snyder, Ralph D., 2012. "Forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles using parsimonious seasonal exponential smoothing," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 748-757.
    9. Cancelo, José Ramón & Espasa, Antoni & Grafe, Rosmarie, 2008. "Forecasting the electricity load from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 588-602.
    10. Jaume Rosselló Nadal & Mohcine Bakhat, 2009. "A new approach to estimating tourism-induced electricity consumption," CRE Working Papers (Documents de treball del CRE) 2009/6, Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB ·"Sa Nostra").
    11. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    12. Barrow, Devon & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2018. "The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(3), pages 967-977.
    13. Soares, Lacir J. & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2008. "Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load: A comparison of methods with an application to Brazilian data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 630-644.
    14. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Triple seasonal methods for short-term electricity demand forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 139-152, July.
    15. Taylor, James W., 2010. "Exponentially weighted methods for forecasting intraday time series with multiple seasonal cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 627-646, October.
    16. Vaz, Lucélia Viviane & Filho, Getulio Borges da Silveira, 2017. "Functional Autoregressive Models: An Application to Brazilian Hourly Electricity Load," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(2), November.
    17. Ohtsuka, Yoshihiro & Oga, Takashi & Kakamu, Kazuhiko, 2010. "Forecasting electricity demand in Japan: A Bayesian spatial autoregressive ARMA approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2721-2735, November.
    18. repec:qut:auncer:wp103 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Mestekemper, Thomas & Kauermann, Göran & Smith, Michael S., 2013. "A comparison of periodic autoregressive and dynamic factor models in intraday energy demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-12.
    20. Óscar Trull & J. Carlos García-Díaz & Alicia Troncoso, 2019. "Application of Discrete-Interval Moving Seasonalities to Spanish Electricity Demand Forecasting during Easter," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    21. Do, Linh Phuong Catherine & Lin, Kuan-Heng & Molnár, Peter, 2016. "Electricity consumption modelling: A case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 92-101.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:230:y:2013:i:1:p:170-180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.