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EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Approach

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  • Fell, Harrison

    ()
    (Resources for the Future)

Abstract

A cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is estimated to determine the dynamic relationship between Nordic wholesale electricity prices and EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) CO2 allowance prices. An impulse response analysis reveals that electricity prices have large short-term responses to CO2 price shocks, but that this response dampens over time. Using hourly Nordic electricity spot market prices, I find that the value of short-term response of electricity prices to a shock in CO2 prices in off-peak hours is consistent with expected values for near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when coal-generated power is at the margin. Likewise, the estimates reveal that peak hour electricity price responses to CO2 price shocks are as expected for a market that has near complete passthrough of CO2 emission costs when natural gas-generated power is at the margin. These results further suggest the Nordic electricity market is pricing as a competitive market.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-08-31.

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Date of creation: 15 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-08-31

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Keywords: cointegrated vector autoregression; impulse response; electricity markets; CO2 cost pass-through; EU-ETS;

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Cited by:
  1. Mandell, Svante & Wråke, Markus & Myers, Erica C. & Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles A., 2009. "Pricing Strategies Under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers 2009:1, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
  2. Markus Wråke & Erica Myers & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell & Charles Holt, 2010. "Opportunity Cost for Free Allocations of Emissions Permits: An Experimental Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 331-336, July.
  3. Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  4. Charles Holt & Erica Myers & Markus Wrake & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell, 2010. "Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment," International Review of Economic Education, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 9(2), pages 34-42.
  5. Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Power, Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 327-349, July.
  6. Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
  7. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
  8. Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.
  9. Boris Solier & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2011. "An overview of CO2 cost pass-through to electricity prices in Europe," Working Papers 1108, Chaire Economie du Climat.
  10. Yu, Haisan, 2010. "The EU ETS and Firm Profits: An Ex-post Analysis for Swedish Energy Firms," Working Paper Series 2011:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  11. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kažukauskas, Andrius, 2013. "The profitability of electricity generating firms and policies promoting renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 858-865.
  12. Mauritzen, Johannes, 2011. "Dead Battery? Wind Power, The Spot Market, and Hydro Power Interaction in the Nordic Electricity Market," Discussion Papers 2011/16, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.

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