EU-ETS and Nordic Electricity: A CVAR Approach
AbstractA cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is estimated to determine the dynamic relationship between Nordic wholesale electricity prices and EU emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) CO2 allowance prices. An impulse response analysis reveals that electricity prices have large short-term responses to CO2 price shocks, but that this response dampens over time. Using hourly Nordic electricity spot market prices, I find that the value of short-term response of electricity prices to a shock in CO2 prices in off-peak hours is consistent with expected values for near complete pass-through of CO2 emission costs when coal-generated power is at the margin. Likewise, the estimates reveal that peak hour electricity price responses to CO2 price shocks are as expected for a market that has near complete passthrough of CO2 emission costs when natural gas-generated power is at the margin. These results further suggest the Nordic electricity market is pricing as a competitive market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Resources For the Future in its series Discussion Papers with number dp-08-31.
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
cointegrated vector autoregression; impulse response; electricity markets; CO2 cost pass-through; EU-ETS;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
- Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
- Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2008-10-07 (European Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2008-10-07 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2008-10-07 (Environmental Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Cheze, Benoi^t, 2008. "Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 787-797, February.
- Pedro Linares & Francisco Javier Santos & Mariano Ventosa & Luis Lapiedra, 2006. "Impacts of the European Emissions Trading Scheme Directive and Permit Assignment Methods on the Spanish Electricity Sector," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 79-98.
- Yihsu Chen & Jos Sijm & Benjamin Hobbs & Wietze Lise, 2008. "Implications of CO 2 emissions trading for short-run electricity market outcomes in northwest Europe," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 251-281, December.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005.
"Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
- Gonzalo, Jesús, .
"Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships,"
Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
info:hdl:10016/731, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dallas Burtraw & Karen Palmer, 2008. "Compensation rules for climate policy in the electricity sector," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 819-847.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002.
"The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances,"
The Electricity Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 51-62, June.
- Burtraw, Dallas & Palmer, Karen & Bharvirkar, Ranjit & Paul, Anthony, 2002. "The Effect on Asset Values of the Allocation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances," Discussion Papers dp-02-15-, Resources For the Future.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998.
"Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models,"
Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
- Rolf Golombek & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2011.
"Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation,"
661, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
- Yu, Haisan, 2010. "The EU ETS and Firm Profits: An Ex-post Analysis for Swedish Energy Firms," Working Paper Series 2011:2, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Botterud, Audun & Kristiansen, Tarjei & Ilic, Marija D., 2010. "The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 967-978, September.
- Mauritzen, Johannes, 2011. "Dead Battery? Wind Power, The Spot Market, and Hydro Power Interaction in the Nordic Electricity Market," Discussion Papers 2011/16, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
- Mandell, Svante & Holt, Chrles & Myers, Erica & Burtraw, Dallas & Wråke, Markus, 2009.
"Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment,"
2009:6, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
- Charles Holt & Erica Myers & Markus Wrake & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell, 2010. "Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment," International Review of Economic Education, Economics Network, University of Bristol, vol. 9(2), pages 34-42.
- Holt, Charles & Myers, Erica & Wråke, Markus & Mandell, Svante & Burtraw, Dallas, 2009. "Teaching Opportunity Cost in an Emissions Permit Experiment," Discussion Papers dp-09-22, Resources For the Future.
- Thoenes, Stefan, 2011. "Understanding the Determinants of Electricity Prices and the Impact of the German Nuclear Moratorium in 2011," EWI Working Papers 2011-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
- Wråke, Markus & Myers, Erica & Mandell, Svante & Holt, Charles & Burtraw, Dallas, 2008.
"Pricing Strategies under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis,"
dp-08-49, Resources For the Future.
- Mandell, Svante & Wråke, Markus & Myers, Erica C. & Burtraw, Dallas & Holt, Charles A., 2009. "Pricing Strategies Under Emissions Trading: An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers 2009:1, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
- Beat Hintermann, 2011. "Market Power, Permit Allocation and Efficiency in Emission Permit Markets," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 49(3), pages 327-349, July.
- Carlos Pinho & Mara Madaleno, 2011. "CO 2 emission allowances and other fuel markets interaction," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 13(3), pages 259-281, September.
- Markus Wråke & Erica Myers & Dallas Burtraw & Svante Mandell & Charles Holt, 2010. "Opportunity Cost for Free Allocations of Emissions Permits: An Experimental Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 331-336, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Webmaster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.