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Model Risk of Expected Shortfall

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  • Emese Lazar

    (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

  • Ning Zhang

    (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)

Abstract

In this paper we study the model risk of Expected Shortfall (ES), extending the results of Boucher et al. (2014) on model risk of Value-at-Risk (VaR). We propose a correction formula for ES based on passing three backtests. Our results show that for the DJIA index, the smallest corrections are required for the ES estimates built using GARCH models. Furthermore, the 2.5% ES requires smaller corrections for model risk than the 1% VaR, which advocates the replacement of VaR with ES as recommended by the Basel Committee. Also, if the model risk of VaR is taken into account, then the correction made to ES estimates reduces by 50% on average.

Suggested Citation

  • Emese Lazar & Ning Zhang, 2017. "Model Risk of Expected Shortfall," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-10, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2017-10
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    Cited by:

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    2. d’Addona, Stefano & Khanom, Najrin, 2022. "Estimating tail-risk using semiparametric conditional variance with an application to meme stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 241-260.
    3. Li, Dan & Clements, Adam & Drovandi, Christopher, 2023. "A Bayesian approach for more reliable tail risk forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Taylor, James W., 2022. "Forecasting Value at Risk and expected shortfall using a model with a dynamic omega ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Ning Zhang & Yujing Gong & Xiaohan Xue, 2023. "Less disagreement, better forecasts: Adjusted risk measures in the energy futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1332-1372, October.
    6. Michael Grabchak & Eliana Christou, 2021. "A note on calculating expected shortfall for discrete time stochastic volatility models," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-16, December.
    7. Hammadi Zouari, 2022. "On the Effectiveness of Stock Index Futures for Tail Risk Protection," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(3), pages 38-52, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    model risk; Expected Shortfall; backtesting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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