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Accurate value-at-risk forecasting based on the normal-GARCH model

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  • Hartz, Christoph
  • Mittnik, Stefan
  • Paolella, Marc

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 51 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 2295-2312

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2006:i:4:p:2295-2312

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References

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  1. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
  2. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  3. Sentana,E., 1995. "Quadratic Arch Models," Papers, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros- 9517, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  4. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  5. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2005. "Modeling and predicting market risk with Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2000. "Diagnosing and treating the fat tails in financial returns data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 389-416, November.
  7. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
  8. Peter Christoffersen & Sílvia Gonçalves, 2004. "Estimation Risk in Financial Risk Management," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-15, CIRANO.
  9. Antoine Frachot, 1995. "Factor Models Of Domestic And Foreign Interest Rates With Stochastic Volatilities," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 167-185.
  10. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  11. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "The impact of general non-parametric volatility functions in multivariate GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(11), pages 3032-3052, July.
  12. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
  13. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S. & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2002. "Stationarity of stable power-GARCH processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 97-107, January.
  14. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
  15. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  16. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  17. Kevin Dowd & David Blake, 2006. "After VaR: The Theory, Estimation, and Insurance Applications of Quantile-Based Risk Measures," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(2), pages 193-229.
  18. M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
  19. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  20. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(04), pages 465-487, December.
  21. Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2003. "Prediction of Financial Downside-Risk with Heavy-Tailed Conditional Distributions," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  22. He, Changli & Ter svirta, Timo & Malmsten, Hans, 2002. "Moment Structure Of A Family Of First-Order Exponential Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 868-885, August.
  23. Giovanni Barone-Adesi & Kostas Giannopoulos & Les Vosper, 2002. "Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(1), pages 31-58.
  24. Emese Lazar & Carol Alexander, 2006. "Normal mixture GARCH(1,1): applications to exchange rate modelling," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 307-336.
  25. Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  26. Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250.
  27. Bams, Dennis & Lehnert, Thorsten & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2005. "An evaluation framework for alternative VaR-models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 944-958, October.
  28. Pascual, Lorenzo & Romo, Juan & Ruiz, Esther, 2006. "Bootstrap prediction for returns and volatilities in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2293-2312, May.
  29. Klaassen, F.J.G.M., 1998. "Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts," Discussion Paper, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research 1998-52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  30. Markus Haas, 2004. "A New Approach to Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 493-530.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Diego Fresoli & Esther Ruiz, 2014. "The uncertainty of conditional returns, volatilities and correlations in DCC models," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría ws140202, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  2. Maria Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Measuring financial risk : comparison of alternative procedures to estimate VaR and ES," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría ws087326, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  3. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Linton, Oliver & Lima, Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira, 2008. "Evaluating Value-at-Risk models via Quantile regressions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 679, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  4. Giannikis, D. & Vrontos, I.D. & Dellaportas, P., 2008. "Modelling nonlinearities and heavy tails via threshold normal mixture GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 1549-1571, January.
  5. Carol Alexander & Jose Maria Sarabia, 2010. "Endogenizing Model Risk to Quantile Estimates," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  6. Köksal, Bülent & Orhan, Mehmet, 2012. "Market risk of developed and developing countries during the global financial crisis," MPRA Paper 37523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Lönnbark, Carl, 2008. "A Corrected Value-at-Risk Predictor," Umeå Economic Studies 734, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  8. María Rosa Nieto & Esther Ruiz, 2010. "Bootstrap prediction intervals for VaR and ES in the context of GARCH models," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría ws102814, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  9. Perez-Alonso, Alicia, 2007. "A bootstrap approach to test the conditional symmetry in time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3484-3504, April.
  10. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
  11. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, 01.

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