Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy
AbstractClassic formulations of markets regard uncertainty as originating from acts of nature. I extend this to a formulation of markets which face risks induces by the economy itself, such as the environmental risks of atmospheric and climate change induced by CFC and CO2 emissions. I formulate and prove the existence of a general competitive equilibrium where the state space and the probabilities of events are endogenously determines as part of the equilibrium. Traders take optimal positions with respect to the uncertainty which their own actions induce. The equilibrium allocations are efficient in a restricted sense. I show that scientific uncertainty can be fully hedged. However uncertainty induced by the unknown level of output at an equilibrium cannot be hedged fully. I discuss applications for CAT Futures, recently introduced on the Chicago Board of Trade, and to international environmental strategies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 8612.
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
endogenous uncertainty; markets general equilibrium; financial innovation; CAT futures;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- CHICHILNISKY , Graciela, 1995.
"A Unified Perspective on Resource Allocation : Limited Arbitrage is Necessary and Sufficient for the Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium, the Core and Social Choice,"
CORE Discussion Papers
1995027, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Chichilnisky, G, 1996. "A Unified Perspective on Resource Allocation : Limited Arbitrage is Necessary and Sufficient for the Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium, the Core and Social Choice," Papers 96-20, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Chichilnisky, G, 1996. "A Unified perspective on Resource Allocation : Limited Arbitrage is Necessary and Sufficient for the Existence of a Competitive Equilibrium, the Core and Social Choice," Discussion Papers 1996_29, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Ellickson,Bryan, 1994. "Competitive Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319881, December.
- Cass, David & Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 1996. "Individual Risk and Mutual Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 333-41, March.
- Hahn, F., 1992. "Incomplete Market Economy," Papers 166, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G. & Streufert, P.A. & Swinkels, J.M., 1992.
"Believing in Multiple Equilibria,"
92-32, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1997. "Limited arbitrage is necessary and sufficient for the existence of an equilibrium," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 470-479, November.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1977. "Spaces of economic agents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 160-173, June.
- Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G., 1993.
"Global Environmental Risks,"
1993_03, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Chichilnisky Graciela & Heal Geoffrey M., 1993. "Competitive Equilibrium in Sobolev Spaces without Bounds on Short Sales," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 364-384, April.
- Fudenberg, Drew & Holmstrom, Bengt & Milgrom, Paul, 1990.
"Short-term contracts and long-term agency relationships,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-31, June.
- Drew Fudenberg & Bengt Holmstrom & Paul Milgrom, 1987. "Short-Term Contracts and Long-Term Agency Relationships," Working papers 468, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Price Discovery Processes," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 34-45, Supplemen.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1994. "Social Diversity, Arbitrage, and Gains from Trade: A Unified Perspective on Resource Allocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 427-34, May.
- repec:fth:coluec:645 is not listed on IDEAS
- Wilson, Robert, 1992. "Strategic analysis of auctions," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, in: R.J. Aumann & S. Hart (ed.), Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 227-279 Elsevier.
- Chichilnisky, G., 1992. "Existence and Optimality of a General Equilibrium with Endogenous Uncertainty," Papers 93-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006.
"General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.
- Graciela Chichilnisky & Ho-Mou Wu, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Discussion Papers 0506-29, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Cornelis A. Los, 2004. "Measuring Financial Cash Flow and Term Structure Dynamics," Finance 0409046, EconWPA.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1998. "The economics of global environmental risk," MPRA Paper 8812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey, 1998. "Managing unknown risks: the future of global reinsurance," MPRA Paper 8820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.