IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/80774.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The PPP Puzzle: An Update

Author

Listed:
  • Razzak, Weshah

Abstract

We show that the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) puzzle, whereby the half-life of the shock to the real exchange rate is long and unjustifiable by monetary and financial shocks, is a result of specification and estimation issues. We provide an alternative specification for PPP and show that the half-life of the shock could be as short as 6.8 months and as long as 2 years, which is considerably shorter than what have been reported in the literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Razzak, Weshah, 2017. "The PPP Puzzle: An Update," MPRA Paper 80774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80774
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/80774/1/MPRA_paper_80774.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
    3. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    4. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    5. Yu-Chin Chen & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1145-1194.
    6. Kravis, Irving B. & Lipsey, Robert E., 1978. "Price behavior in the light of balance of payments theories," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 193-246, May.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth S. Rogoff (ed.), 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262523140, December.
    8. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
    9. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    10. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    11. Nancy D. Ruggles, 1974. "The Role of the Computer in Economic and Social Research in Latin America," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rugg74-1, May.
    12. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2008. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices," NBER Chapters, in: Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, pages 291-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "Editorial in "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 1-4, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Arthur Laffer & David Meiselman, 1975. "The Phenomenon of Worldwide Inflation," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 725613, September.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
    21. Irving B. Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1971. "Price Competitiveness in World Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krav71-1, May.
    22. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    23. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
    24. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1978. "Purchasing power parity : Doctrinal perspective and evidence from the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 169-191, May.
    25. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern01-1, May.
    26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
    27. Rudiger Dornbusch & Paul Krugman, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates in the Short Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 7(3), pages 537-584.
    28. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
    29. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    30. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    31. Lawrence H. Officer, 1982. "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Gerrard de Malynes," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 256-259, Summer.
    32. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    33. Irving Kravis & Robert E. Lipsey, 1974. "International Trade Prices and Price Proxies," NBER Chapters, in: The Role of the Computer in Economic and Social Research in Latin America, pages 253-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Weshah Razzak, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: An Update," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(2), pages 77-104.
    2. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    3. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    4. James R. Lothian & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod‐Balassa‐Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    5. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    6. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Hai Long Vo, 2023. "The Law of One Food Price," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 195-216, February.
    7. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    8. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
    10. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656, April.
    11. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    12. Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2013. "Decomposing the persistence of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1217-1242, June.
    13. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    14. Axel Grossmann & Marc Simpson & Teofilo Ozuna, 2014. "Investigating the PPP hypothesis using constructed U.S. dollar equilibrium exchange rate misalignments over the post-bretton woods period," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 235-268, April.
    15. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
    16. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
    17. Jaramillo Franco, Miguel & Serván Lozano, Sergio, 2012. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in Peru: A cointegration approach using the UIP and PPP," MPRA Paper 70772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Choi, Jae Hoon & Song, Seongho, 2022. "Revisiting the PPP puzzle: Nominal exchange rate rigidity and region of inaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    PPP; unit root; half-life of shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80774. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.