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The Realities of Modern Hyperinflation

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Author Info
Reinhart, Carmen
Savastano, Miguel

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Abstract

Policymakers would do well to bear in mind the seven lessons that emerge from this overview of modern hyperinflations. Hyperinflations seldom materialize overnight and are usually preceded by a protracted period of high and variable inflation.Stabilization may take years if fiscal policies are not adjusted appropriately. Even when fiscal adjustment is implemented, it takes time to achieve low inflation, especially when money is used as the nominal anchor.Sharp reductions in fiscal deficits are always a critical element of a stabilization program, regardless of the choice of monetary anchor.Unifying exchange markets and stablishing currency convertibility are often essential ingredients of stabilization, irrespective of the choice of main nominal anchor.Output collapses during, and sometimes in the run-up to, hyperinflation. Although stabilization measures cap the implosion in economic activity, there is little evidence to suggest that they kindle a robust rebound in economic activity.Hyperinflations are accompanied by an abrupt reduction in financial intermediation.Stopping a hyperinflation does not restore demand for domestic money and domestic currency assets to the levels that prevailed before the hyperinflation began. Capital returns to the country when high inflation stops, but dollarization and other forms of indexation dominate financial intermediation for many years.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 7578.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Finance and Development, 2.40(2003): pp. 20-23
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7578

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

Cited by:
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  1. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Norbert Funke & Jens R. Clausen & Bakar Ould-Abdallah & Sharmini Coorey & Sònia Muñoz, 2007. "Lessons from High Inflation Epidsodes for Stabilizing the Economy in Zimbabwe," IMF Working Papers 07/99, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. John McDermott & Peter McMenamin, 2008. "Assessing Inflation Targeting in Latin America With a DSGE Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 469, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Paolo Zagaglia, 2007. "Operational Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Dynamics," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Society for Economic Research, vol. 20(2), pages 121-138, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
  5. Óscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative hyperinflations: when can we rule them out?," Banco de España Working Papers 0607, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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