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Empirical Analysis of Yield Determinants in Japan’s Municipal Bond Market: Does Credit Risk Premium Exist?

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  • Hattori, Takahiro
  • Miyake, Hiroki

Abstract

In this study, we examine the determinants of the yield spread between issuers in Japan’s municipal bond market using panel data and focus on identifying whether credit risk premium exists. The results of the panel data analysis reveal new evidence on the municipal bond market for FY 2002–2013. In the first half of the 2000s, the fundamental fiscal statistics, that is, the credit risk indicators, had no impact on the yield spreads, suggesting the absence of credit risk premium. Second, Yūbari city’s insolvency in 2006 led to a structural break and since then, investors have begun accounting for local governments’ outstanding debt. Third, when important financial events occur, other credit risk indicators also significantly impact the yield spread, suggesting that during such events, investors are more aware of credit risk presence. Finally, the findings of this study provide implications for, perhaps, financial institutions, market participants, regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2015. "Empirical Analysis of Yield Determinants in Japan’s Municipal Bond Market: Does Credit Risk Premium Exist?," MPRA Paper 67127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:67127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hattori, Takahiro, 2019. "J-liquidity measure: The term structure of the liquidity premium in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 61-72.
    2. Hang Luo & Linfeng Chen, 2019. "Bond yield and credit rating: evidence of Chinese local government financing vehicles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 737-758, April.
    3. Fabio Sigrist & Patrick Köchli & Christoph Lengwiler, 2018. "Determinants of municipal loan spreads: empirical evidence from Switzerland," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 143-166, May.
    4. Hattori, Takahiro, 2018. "Decomposing Japanese municipal bond spreads: Default and liquidity premiums in times of crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 16-28.
    5. Hattori, Takahiro & Miyake, Hiroki, 2016. "The Japan Municipal Bond Yield Curve: 2002 to the Present," MPRA Paper 69725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Takahiro Hattori & Hiroki Miyake, 2016. "The Japan Municipal Bond Yield Curve: 2002 to the Present," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(6), pages 118-118, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield spread; Municipal bond market; Credit risk; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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