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Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change

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  • Reckova, Dominika
  • Irsova, Zuzana

Abstract

We present a meta-regression analysis of the relation between the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and changes in global temperature. The relation is captured by “climate sensitivity”, which measures the response to a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations compared to pre-industrial levels. Estimates of climate sensitivity play a crucial role in evaluating the impacts of climate change and constitute one of the most important inputs into the computation of the social cost of carbon, which reflects the socially optimal value of a carbon tax. Climate sensitivity has been estimated by many researchers, but their results vary significantly. We collect 48 estimates from 16 studies and analyze the literature quantitatively. We find evidence for publication selection bias: researchers tend to report preferentially large estimates of climate sensitivity. Corrected for publication bias, the bulk of the literature is consistent with climate sensitivity lying between 1.4 and 2.3°C.

Suggested Citation

  • Reckova, Dominika & Irsova, Zuzana, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change," MPRA Paper 64455, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64455
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    23. Tomáš Havránek & Jana Sedlaříková, 2014. "Meta-analýza důchodové elasticity poptávky po penězích [A Meta-Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Money Demand]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 366-382.
    24. Diana Zigraiova & Tomas Havranek, 2016. "Bank Competition And Financial Stability: Much Ado About Nothing?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 944-981, December.
    25. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Anthropogenic Climate Change," Energy & Environment, , vol. 26(5), pages 853-862, September.
    2. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    3. Khan, Muhammad Arif, 2022. "ESG disclosure and Firm performance: A bibliometric and meta analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Tomas Havranek, Dominik Herman, and Zuzana Irsova, 2018. "Does Daylight Saving Save Electricity? A Meta-Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. Dominika Reckova & Zuzana Irsova, 2015. "Publication Bias in Measuring Climate Sensitivity," Working Papers IES 2015/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate sensitivity; climate change; CO2; publication bias; meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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