Are All Economic Hypotheses False?
AbstractThe authors develop an estimator that allows them to calculate an upper bound to the fraction of unrejected null hypotheses tested in economics journal articles that are in fact true. Their point estimate is that none of the unrejected nulls in their sample is true. The authors reject the hypothesis that more than one-third are true. They consider three explanations for this finding: that all null hypotheses are mere approximations, that data-mining biases reported standard errors downward, and that journals tend to publish papers that fail to reject their null hypotheses only when the they are likely to be false. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department in its series J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers with number _117.
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 549 Evans Hall # 3880, Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
Phone: 510-643-4027, 925-283-2709
Fax: 510-642-6615, 925-283-3897
Web page: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/Econ_Articles/Econ_Articles.html
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990.
"Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care?,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- 'All models are wrong, but some models are useful'
by Stephen in Worthwhile Canadian Initiative on 2006-09-29 14:11:10
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading lists or Wikipedia pages:Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.