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Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California at Santa Cruz)
Menzie Chinn

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Abstract

This paper examines whether output per capita in 126 countries is better described as trend or difference stationary using formal statistical tests. Appropriate finite-sample critical values are constructed to evaluate the test results. Depending upon whether one uses solely a test with a trend stationary null, or solely one with a difference stationary null, one obtains very different conclusions regarding the long run dynamics of GDP. This outcome suggests that it is useful to consider the tests complementary, rather than competing. Based on results from both tests, we find that when a definite characterization of GDP can be made, it is very likely to indicate a difference stationary process. However, the likelihood of making definite conclusions does vary positively with both the income level and the quality of data.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9508005.

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Date of creation: 28 Aug 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508005

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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Convergence of International Output Movements," NBER Working Papers 3717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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  8. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hall, Alastair R, 1994. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
  18. Cogley, Timothy, 1990. "International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-18, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Terrie Carolan & Nirvikar Singh, 2004. "Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1033, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Tron Tran, 1995. "How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries," Macroeconomics 9508004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? Evidence from Selected African Countries Based on More Powerful Nonlinear (Logistic) Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(24), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "Does Stationarity Characterize Real GDP Movements? Results from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Macroeconomics 0406002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Ning-Jun Zhang & Peirchyi Lii & Yi-Sung Huang & Chi-Wei Su, 2007. "IS Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in China¡H Evidence Based on A Panel SURADF Approach," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996. "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP," NBER Technical Working Papers 0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Kristen Monaco & Taggert J. Brooks & John Bitzan, 2006. "A time series analysis of wages in deregulated industries: A study of motor carriage and rail," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 105-118, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in the OECD Countries? Evidence from a Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 9635, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Shu-Chen Kang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2008. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence from a Panel Stationary Test with Structural Breaks," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
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