This file is part of IDEAS , which uses RePEc data
[ Papers |
Articles |
Software |
Books |
Chapters |
Authors |
Institutions |
JEL Classification |
NEP reports |
Search |
New papers by email |
Author registration |
Rankings |
Volunteers |
FAQ |
Blog |
Help! ]
Deterministic, stochastic and segmented trends in aggregate output: A cross-country analysis Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Yin-Wong Cheung (University of California at Santa Cruz)
Menzie Chinn
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
This paper examines whether output per capita in 126 countries is better described as trend or difference stationary using formal statistical tests. Appropriate finite-sample critical values are constructed to evaluate the test results. Depending upon whether one uses solely a test with a trend stationary null, or solely one with a difference stationary null, one obtains very different conclusions regarding the long run dynamics of GDP. This outcome suggests that it is useful to consider the tests complementary, rather than competing. Based on results from both tests, we find that when a definite characterization of GDP can be made, it is very likely to indicate a difference stationary process. However, the likelihood of making definite conclusions does vary positively with both the income level and the quality of data.
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page . Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number
9508005.
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML
(with abstract ),
plain text
(with abstract ),
BibTeX ,
RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite),
ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 28 Aug 1995Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9508005Note: Complete WP 5.1 DOS with HP laserjet printer compatable. TRENDS.WPContact details of provider: Web page: http://129.3.20.41
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).
Keywords: Other versions of this item:
Article Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 1996.
"Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Analysis ,"
Oxford Economic Papers ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 134-62, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Find related papers by JEL classification: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Riezman, Raymond G. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1990.
"Worldwide Persistence, Business Cycles, and Economic Growth ,"
Working Papers
719, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
[Downloadable!]
Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1990.
"Unit roots in real GNP: Do we know, and do we care? ,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy ,
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 7-61, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989.
"Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care? ,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
[Downloadable!] Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990.
"Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care? ,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
90-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989.
"Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care? ,"
NBER Working Papers
3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989.
"Long memory and persistence in aggregate output ,"
Journal of Monetary Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1991.
"Convergence of International Output Movements ,"
NBER Working Papers
3717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1993.
"The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP ,"
American Economic Review ,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 264-72, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
732, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985.
"Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Perron, Pierre, 1990.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
Other versions: Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990.
"A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output ,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking ,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Zelhorst, Dick & de Haan, Jakob, 1995.
"Testing for a Break in Output: New International Evidence ,"
Oxford Economic Papers ,
Oxford University Press, vol. 47(2), pages 357-62, April.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992.
"Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
Harris, R I D, 1992.
"Small Sample Testing for Unit Roots ,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics ,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(4), pages 615-25, November.
Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1994.
"Aggregate output dynamics in the twentieth century ,"
Economics Letters ,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 15-22, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
de Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1993.
"Does Output Have a Unit Root? New International Evidence ,"
Applied Economics ,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 953-60, July.
Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1994.
"A Consistent Test for a Unit Root ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 157-66, April.
Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974.
"Spurious regressions in econometrics ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
"Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root? ,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University.
[Downloadable!] Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root? ,"
Papers
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
Hall, Alastair R, 1994.
"Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series with Pretest Data-Based Model Selection ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 461-70, October.
Cogley, Timothy, 1990.
"International Evidence on the Size of the Random Walk in Output ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 501-18, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Terrie Carolan & Nirvikar Singh, 2004.
"Time Series Analysis of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992 ,"
Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series
1033, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Terrie Carolan & Nirvikar Singh, 2004.
"Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992 ,"
Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
1010, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
[Downloadable!] Nirvikar Singh & Terrie Carolan, 2004.
"Time Series Analysis Of U.S.-East Asia Commodity Trade, 1962-1992 ,"
International Trade
0412003, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!] Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Tron Tran, 1995.
"How sensitive are estimated trends to data definitions? Results for East Asian and G-5 countries ,"
Macroeconomics
9508004, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chung Nieh & Ching-Chun Wei, 2005.
"Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary? Evidence from Selected African Countries Based on More Powerful Nonlinear (Logistic) Unit Root Tests ,"
Economics Bulletin ,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(24), pages 1-9.
[Downloadable!]
Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004.
"Does Stationarity Characterize Real GDP Movements? Results from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests ,"
Macroeconomics
0406002, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Ning-Jun Zhang & Peirchyi Lii & Yi-Sung Huang & Chi-Wei Su, 2007.
"IS Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in China¡H Evidence Based on A Panel SURADF Approach ,"
Economics Bulletin ,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
[Downloadable!]
Paresh Narayan, 2008.
"Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary? ,"
Empirical Economics ,
Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1996.
"Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP ,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995.
"Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP ,"
Econometrics
9508002, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!] Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D, 1997.
"Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in GNP ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 68-73, January.
Kristen Monaco & Taggert J. Brooks & John Bitzan, 2006.
"A time series analysis of wages in deregulated industries: A study of motor carriage and rail ,"
Journal of Applied Economics ,
Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 105-118, May.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007.
"Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in the OECD Countries? Evidence from a Panel Unit Root Test ,"
MPRA Paper
9635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
[Downloadable!]
Tsangyao Chang & Kuei-Chiu Lee & Shu-Chen Kang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2008.
"Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence from a Panel Stationary Test with Structural Breaks ,"
Economics Bulletin ,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
[Downloadable!]
Access and
download statistics Did you know? IDEAS uses the data collected within the RePEc project , the largest online bibliographic database in Economics.
This page was last updated on 2009-11-30.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics , College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics .