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Are All Economic Hypotheses False?

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Author Info
De Long, J Bradford
Lang, Kevin

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Abstract

The authors develop an estimator that allows them to calculate an upper bound to the fraction of unrejected null hypotheses tested in economics journal articles that are in fact true. Their point estimate is that none of the unrejected nulls in their sample is true. The authors reject the hypothesis that more than one-third are true. They consider three explanations for this finding: that all null hypotheses are mere approximations, that data-mining biases reported standard errors downward, and that journals tend to publish papers that fail to reject their null hypotheses only when the they are likely to be false. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 100 (1992)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 1257-72
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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:100:y:1992:i:6:p:1257-72

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit roots in real GNP: do we know, and do we care?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 18, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. T.D Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2007. "Identifying and Correcting Publication Selection Bias in the Efficiency-Wage Literature: Heckman Meta-Regression," Economics Series 2007_11, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kevin Lang & Jay Zagorsky, 1998. "Why are Canadian and US Unemployment Rates So Highly Correlated?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 24(s1), pages 56-71, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1996. "Is the Time-Series Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects Contaminated by Publication Bias?," NBER Working Papers 5631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Prasad Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D. Thomakos, 2006. "Trade, Openness and Domestic Conflict: An Empirical Investigation for Latin America," Economics Series 2006_02, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. T.D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2009. "Could It Be Better to Discard 90% of the Data? A Statistical Paradox," Economics Series 2009_13, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chris Doucouliagos & Patrice Laroche, 2007. "Unions and Profitability: A Meta-Analysis," Economics Series 2007_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  7. T.D. Stanley, 2006. "Two-Stage Precision-Effect Estimation and Heckman Meta-Regression for Publication Selection Bias," Economics Series 2006_25, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  8. T.D. Stanley, 2006. "Meta-Regression Methods for Detecting and Estimating Empirical Effects in the Presence of Publication Selection," Economics Series 2006_20, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Hristos Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2008. "Theory Competition and Selectivity: Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated?," Economics Series 2008_06, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  10. T.D. Stanley & Chris Doucouliagous, 2006. "Publication Bias in Minimum-Wage Research? Card and Krueger Redux," Economics Series 2006_16, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  11. Michael Greenstone & Ted Gayer, 2007. "Quasi-Experimental and Experimental Approaches to Environmental Economics," Working Papers 0713, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Hans-Jürgen Engelbrecht, 1997. "The Impact Of International Trade On Real Wages In U.S. Manufacturing, 1985--1989," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 69-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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