IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/62827.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Public Capital Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: Evidence from the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Bhatt Hakhu, Antra
  • Piergallini, Alessandro
  • Scaramozzino, Pasquale

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between public capital expenditure and public debt in the European Union (EU) on a panel of fifteen countries over the sample period 1980-2013. We find robust evidence of a negative cointegrating relation, according to which increases in the capital expenditure-GDP ratio cause reductions in the debt-GDP ratio in the long run. Our empirical results suggest that current EU fiscal austerity can trigger upward debt spirals if cuts in total expenditure disregard its composition. Consistently with the “golden rule of public finance”, EU fiscal rules should allow for higher levels of capital expenditure in order to foster debt consolidation through growth dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhatt Hakhu, Antra & Piergallini, Alessandro & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2014. "Public Capital Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: Evidence from the European Union," MPRA Paper 62827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62827/1/MPRA_paper_62827.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iwamoto, Yasushi, 1990. "An Evaluation of Public Investment Policy in Postwar Japan," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 41(3), pages 250-261, July.
    2. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    4. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2013. "Non-linear budgetary policies: Evidence from 150 years of Italian public finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 495-498.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Mathias Trabandt & Harald Uhlig, 2012. "How Do Laffer Curves Differ across Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 211-249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    8. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    9. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    10. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    12. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    13. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    14. Trabandt, Mathias & Uhlig, Harald, 2011. "The Laffer curve revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 305-327.
    15. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-625, December.
    16. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
    17. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    18. Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
    19. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    20. Antra Bhatt & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2015. "Federal Transfers and Fiscal Discipline in India," Public Finance Review, , vol. 43(1), pages 53-81, January.
    21. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1999. "Budget Balance, Welfare, and the Growth Rate: "Dynamic Scoring" of the Long-Run Government Budget," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 162-186, May.
    23. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    24. Groneck, Max, 2010. "A golden rule of public finance or a fixed deficit regime?: Growth and welfare effects of budget rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 523-534, March.
    25. Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "The behavior of US public debt: a nonlinear perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-125, December.
    26. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    27. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    2. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, April.
    3. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "(Un)Productive Use of Public Debt in Kosovo," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 18-37, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    2. Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.
    3. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2006. "Testing for inflation convergence between the Euro Zone and its CEE partners," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 235-240.
    4. Jacobo Alberto Campo Robledo, 2012. "Impacto De Las Patentes Sobre El Crecimiento Económico: Un Modelo Panel Cointegrado [Impact of Patents on Economic Growth: A Cointegrated Panel Data Model]," Working Papers hal-00744361, HAL.
    5. Jacobo Campo & Henry Mendoza, 2018. "Public expenditure and economic growth: a regional analysis for Colombia, 1984-2012," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 88, pages 77-108, Enero - J.
    6. Jacobo Campo Robledo & Henry Antonio Mendoza Tolosa, 2014. "Gasto Público y Crecimiento Económico regional en Colombia (1984 - 2012)," Documentos de Trabajo 12425, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    7. BADALYAN, Gohar & HERZFELD, Thomas & RAJCANIOVA, Miroslava, 2014. "Transport Infrastructure And Economic Growth: Panel Data Approach For Armenia, Georgia And Turkey," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 17(2), pages 1-10, October.
    8. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    9. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Cliometrics And Time Series Econometrics: Some Theory And Applications," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 970-1042, December.
    10. Pedro Teles & Harald Uhlig & João Valle e Azevedo, 2016. "Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 442-464, March.
    11. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2013. "Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: A panel cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 251-258.
    12. Nicholas Apergis, 2015. "Labor Income Tax and Output in a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries: A Long-Run Perspective," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-12, March.
    13. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aissa, Mohamed Safouane, 2014. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries," MPRA Paper 80776, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    16. Costantini, Valeria & Martini, Chiara, 2010. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-sectoral analysis using non-stationary cointegrated panel data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 591-603, May.
    17. María Santana-Gallego & Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez & Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez, 2011. "Tourism and trade in OECD countries. A dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 533-554, October.
    18. Wang, Kuan-Min, 2011. "Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1536-1549, July.
    19. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2014. "Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 125-136.
    20. Evan Lau & Xiao-Hui Chye & Chee-Keong Choong, 2011. "Energy-Growth Causality: Asian Countries Revisited," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 140-149.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; EU; panel cointegration; public expenditure; public debt.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:62827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.