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The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania

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  • Kihaule, Arnold Mathias
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies adopted during the period in which Tanzania experienced economic shocks. The econometric models are used to determine the impact of exogenous and economic policy shocks on gdp growth, public spending and the fiscal balance. The results revealed that policy shocks resulted in structural changes in output growth and public spending instability in Tanzania. Specifically, economic policy shocks led to changes in macroeconomic conditions, which adversely affected the fiscal position after 1986. The results suggest that fiscal adjustment policies should not be undertaken when a number of economic policy changes are envisaged in an economy.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46151/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 46151.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2012
    Date of revision: Feb 2013
    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:46151

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    Keywords: fiscal adjustment policies; fiscal deficit; public spending; economic policy shock; Tanzania;

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    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
    3. Vito Tanzi, 1989. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Level of Taxation and the Fiscal Balance in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 633-656, September.
    4. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "The Impact of Large Structural Shocks on Economic Relationships: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 524, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1995. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy Changes: International Evidence and the Swedish Experience," CEPR Discussion Papers 1284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    8. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
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