The Impact of Large Structural Shocks on Economic Relationships: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks
AbstractThis paper introduces a new model of structural breaks which assumes that structural breaks are driven by large economic shocks. The model specifies that both the timing and size of breaks are stochastic and it can be used to investigate the impact of large economic shocks on the stability of economic relationships. An application of the model to the oil-macroeconomy relationship has shown that the apparent instability of this relationship since the oil crisis in year 1973 can be attributed to large oil price shocks.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 524.
Date of creation: Oct 2004
Date of revision:
Structural breaks; State space model; Oil shocks;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
- A Carruth & M Hooker & A Oswald, 1994. "Unemployment, Oil Prices and the Real Interest Rate: Evidence from Canada and the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp0188, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Kapetanios, George, 2000. "Small sample properties of the conditional least squares estimator in SETAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 267-276, December.
- Kihaule, Arnold Mathias, 2012. "The impact of economic policy shocks on the outcomes of the fiscal adjustment policies in Tanzania," MPRA Paper 46151, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2013.
- Richard Harrison & George Kapetanios & Alasdair Scott & Jana Eklund, 2008. "Breaks in DSGE models," 2008 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kapetanios, George, 2008. "Bootstrap-based tests for deterministic time-varying coefficients in regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 534-545, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nick Vriend).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.