Why might climate change not cause conflict? an agent-based computational response
AbstractIn this paper, we first briefly review the recent literature on climate change, resource scarcity and conflict. This is then followed by introducing an agent based computational model based on the theory of production and conflict which is capable of simulating the dynamics of micro-level resource conflicts. The model considers differences in resource attributes, differentiates between conflict subjects, takes into account bounded rationality, non-linearity and feedback loops, and is enriched by a set of scenarios ranging between mild to severe resource shocks. Our results show that agents tend not to get engage in conflict during mild resource scarcity scenarios as they adapt to the changes and since the decreases in returns to resource predation and increases in their protective practices act as negative feedback loops, discouraging resource predators from allocating further effort to predation. The model results also show that scarcity is more likely to encourage product predation rather than resource predation among the agents.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 44918.
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Date of revision:
Climate Change; Resource Scarcity; Conflict; Security; Agent-based Model; Social Simulation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
- Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2013-03-16 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-ENV-2013-03-16 (Environmental Economics)
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